Match Info

I Liqa - Round 25

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday


	Zagatala		Səbail

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.85	3.65	1.58
	1.00	1.00	1.02	Watch
	5.2	3.85	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↓ (5.2)	2.83 ↓ (3.85)	1.37 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 11.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zagatala
20%

Draw
26%

Səbail
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.2%

23.2%

59.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

22.9%

60.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagatala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Səbail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Səbail might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagatala than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Səbail could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Almeyda A. ⚽,
34', 0 - 2, Almeyda A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Qyrtymov I. 🟥,
54', Voronsov R. 🟥,
81', 0 - 3, Rikardo P. ⚽,

Preview

Recent form of Zagatala has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Səbail is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Səbail is seen as the favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Zagatala won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Zagatala won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Sabail	3	2	1	0	4:2	2	7
6	Zaqatala	4	1	1	2	5:11	-6	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zagatala PFK
Azerbaijan First Division
29.04.26	Mingachevir - Zagatala	7:1 ✺
22.04.26	Zagatala - Shahdag Qusar	0:1 ✺
15.04.26	MOIK Baku - Zagatala	2:1 ✺
08.04.26	Cəbrayıl - Zagatala	3:2 ✺
02.04.26	Zagatala - Difai Ağsu	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan First Division
30.04.26	Səbail - Cəbrayıl	6:0 ✺
23.04.26	Difai Ağsu - Səbail	0:4 ✺
16.04.26	Səbail - Shimal	4:0 ✺
09.04.26	Şəfa - Səbail	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Səbail - Baku Sporting	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
05.02.26	Zagatala - Səbail	0:1
15.10.25	Səbail - Zagatala	1:0
Azerbaijan Cup
10.12.21	Zagatala - Səbail	1:3
24.01.21	Səbail - Zagatala	3:2

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