Match Info

Date: 1 November 2020, Sunday


	Smolensk		Murom

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.9	1.6
	3.75	4	1.7
	4.3	3.7	1.58
	4.53	3.91	1.62
	4.65	3.88	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.35 ↑ (3.27)	3.88 ↑ (3.54)	1.63 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smolensk
20.9%

Draw
23.4%

Murom
55.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

25.9%

46.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

19.3%

61.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smolensk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Smolensk's form might have worsened.

Murom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Murom's recent form is better than expected.

The ML Model estimate for Smolensk aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Murom than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Murom could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Smolensk - Murom Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 9).

Smolensk has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Murom is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Murom could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Smolensk have a series of guest games.

In this match Murom is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Smolensk
Russian FNL 2 Group 2
25.10.20	Lokomotiv-Kazanka - Smolensk	4:0 ✺
18.10.20	Dynamo 2 Moscow - Smolensk	4:1 ✺
13.10.20	Leningradets - Smolensk	4:0 ✺
09.10.20	Smolensk - Torpedo Vladimir	1:4 ✺
04.10.20	Rodina Moscow - Smolensk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLLT
- FC Murom
Russian FNL 2 Group 2
25.10.20	Murom - Luki-Energiya	3:1 ✺
16.10.20	Zenit Irkutsk - Murom	2:1 ✺
13.10.20	Chita - Murom	1:0 ✺
09.10.20	Murom - Volga Tver	1:2 ✺
03.10.20	Olimp Dolgoprudny - Murom	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLLL

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