Match Info

National - Round 6

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Sochaux		Caen

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.1	3.7
	2.1	3.2	3.25
	2.19	3.32	3.43
	2.65	3.05	2.65	Watch
	2.09	3.24	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2)	3.18 ↓ (3.34)	3.28 ↓ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sochaux
42.5%

Draw
29.2%

Caen
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

27.7%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

26%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sochaux has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sochaux than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sochaux, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Sochaux - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Sochaux will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Caen will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sochaux: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Caen (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sochaux will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sochaux (votes: 3 - 60%). Caen (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Pierre A. (G) 17. Youssouf B. 4. Vitelli A. (C) 14. Peybernes M. 24. Tavares D. 23. Masson J. 6. Mendes E. 28. Boutoutaou A. 15. Mexique J. 7. Gomel B. 9. Djoco K.	1. Mandrea A. (G) 18. Henry V. 27. Debohi D. 28. Sagnan S. 26. Etuin M. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 14. Rajot L. 22. Hafid M. 25. Bagbema Z. 7. Diakite A. 19. Botella I.
Substitutes
19. Lecolier M. 22. Loubao S. 20. Mendy P. 33. N'Gatta E. 11. Vetro J.	3. Bolumbu D. 11. Gnanduillet A. 17. Labonne R. 24. Milliner L. 21. Tome G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Bagbema Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
58', Henry V. 🟨,
68', Diakite A. 🟨,
70', Boutoutaou A. ↓, Vetro J. ↑,
72', Diakite A. ↓, Gnanduillet A. ↑,
77', Henry V. ↓, Labonne R. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Djoco K. ⚽, Vetro J. (A),
80', Bagbema Z. ↓, Milliner L. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Botella I. ⚽,
85', Djoco K. ↓, Lecolier M. ↑,
90+3', Tavares D. ↓, N'Gatta E. ↑,
90+4', Botella I. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 2 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sochaux won 3.

Sochaux is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Caen has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sochaux could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Sochaux won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Sochaux won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Sochaux Montbeliard
French Ligue 3
05.09.25	Paris 13 Atletico - Sochaux	1:3 ✺
29.08.25	Sochaux - Stade Briochin	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Rouen FC - Sochaux	3:1 ✺
15.08.25	Sochaux - Orleans	5:0 ✺
08.08.25	Le Puy - Sochaux	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWLWW
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
05.09.25	Caen - Dijon	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Fleury 91 - Caen	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Caen - Versailles	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Quevilly - Caen	1:1 ✺
08.08.25	Caen - Aubagne	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
06.03.23	Caen - Sochaux	0:0
20.01.23	Sochaux - Caen	1:2
15.01.22	Sochaux - Caen	3:2
07.08.21	Caen - Sochaux	1:2
24.04.21	Sochaux - Caen	1:0
22.12.20	Caen - Sochaux	1:4
26.07.19	Sochaux - Caen	0:0

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