Match Info

Ligue 3 - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Robert Bobin (Bondoufle)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Italy	Ligue 1+
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+


	Fleury 91		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.40	2.40
	2.43	3.30	2.48
	2.74	3.61	2.49
	2.43	3.45	2.55	Watch
	2.70	3.55	2.40
	2.68	3.56	2.41
	2.55	3.45	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.65)	3.47 ↑ (3.29)	2.44 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fleury 91
35.9%

Draw
26.5%

Caen
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

27.8%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

27.6%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fleury 91 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Caen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fleury 91 than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caen than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Fleury 91 - Caen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fleury (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fleury (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Alette G. (G) 18. Cisse C. 2. Colombo F. 26. Karamoko H. (C) 25. Jean-Pierre M. 28. Homssa N. 8. Leleve R. 10. Le Mehaute Y. 7. Verdier Y. 19. Farade K. 17. Lavigne V.	16. Clementia Y. (G) 12. Appiah D. 5. Diaby Y. 23. Carole L. 3. Bolumbu D. 25. Bagbema Z. 24. Milliner L. 20. Portut K. 9. El Khoumisti F. 10. Botella I. 11. Gnanduillet A.
Substitutes
14. Belliard M. 20. Khetir C. 6. Lefebvre G. 1. Petit A. (G) 3. Plisson T. 11. Rivas J. 29. Rouba A.	32. Aissaoui I. 18. Bomo F. 29. Diakite S. 19. Lamouliatte H. 30. Mandanda P. (G) 4. Mbaka S. 28. Saivet H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Gnanduillet A. ⚽, Botella I. (A),
39', 1 - 1, Farade K. ⚽, Lavigne V. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Lavigne V. ↓, Khetir C. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Verdier Y. ⚽, Farade K. (A),
64', 2 - 2, Diaby Y. ⚽, Botella I. (A),
69', Le Mehaute Y. ↓, Lefebvre G. ↑,
70', Gnanduillet A. ↓, Diakite S. ↑,
72', Jean-Pierre M. ↓, Plisson T. ↑,
74', 3 - 2, Verdier Y. ⚽,
79', Bolumbu D. ↓, Mbaka S. ↑,
79', Milliner L. ↓, Saivet H. ↑,
82', Verdier Y. ↓, Belliard M. ↑,
82', Leleve R. ↓, Rivas J. ↑,
86', Bagbema Z. ↓, Bomo F. ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+3', Plisson T. 🟨,
90+6', Diaby Y. 🟥,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 14th and 3rd in the Promotion - Ligue 2 (Promotion: )).

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Fleury may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Fleury has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:3 (averaging 0.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fleury against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	17:12	5	15
10	Fleury 91	9	3	3	3	15:12	3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fleury 91
French Ligue 3
26.09.26	Fleury 91 - Aubagne	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Fleury 91 - Thionville Lusitanos	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Valenciennes - Fleury 91	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Fleury 91 - Villefranche	6:1 ✺
29.08.26	Quevilly - Fleury 91	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTWWL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
24.09.26	Caen - Rouen FC	3:2 ✺
19.09.26	Concarneau - Caen	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Caen - Paris 13 Atletico	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Caen	0:2 ✺
27.08.26	Caen - Bastia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
06.02.26	Caen - Fleury 91	1:0
29.08.25	Fleury 91 - Caen	1:2

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