Match Info

National - Round 25

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stade Charles Massot (Espaly-Saint Marcel)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	FIFA+


	Le Puy		Caen

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.15	3.1
	2.16	3.35	3.46
	2.18	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.1	3	3
	2.18	3.25	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.05)	3.19 ↓ (3.24)	3.19 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Le Puy
42.5%

Draw
28.8%

Caen
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

28.3%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

28.1%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Le Puy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Caen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Le Puy than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caen than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Le Puy - Caen Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Le Puy will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Caen will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Le Puy: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Le Puy (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Carvalho M. (G) 27. Diebold Y. 5. Zogba M. (C) 25. Mohamed I. 6. Soualhia A. 7. Faty M. 18. Gauthier A. 26. Esmel H. 8. Akkal S. 15. Rodrigues C. 9. Adelaide M.	1. Mandrea A. (G) 27. Debohi D. 6. M'Vila Y. (C) 9. Duville-Parsemain A. 17. Labonne R. 26. Etuin M. 28. Sagnan S. 22. Hafid M. 31. Kimboma J. 14. Rajot L. 11. Gnanduillet A.
Substitutes
28. Doumbia C. 19. Ghalem T. 23. Gromat J. 3. Seidou E. 22. Xhemo R.	19. Botella I. 34. Kanoute D. 12. Mazie O. 24. Milliner L. 32. Portut K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', M'Vila Y. 🟨,
23', 1 - 0, Adelaide M. ⚽,
36', Akkal S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Labonne R. 🟨,
65', Hafid M. ↓, Mazie O. ↑,
65', Duville-Parsemain A. ↓, Botella I. ↑,
68', Diebold Y. 🟨,
73', Labonne R. ↓, Milliner L. ↑,
79', Akkal S. ↓, Xhemo R. ↑,
83', Etuin M. ↓, Portut K. ↑,
83', Rajot L. ↓, Kanoute D. ↑,
84', Gauthier A. ↓, Gromat J. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 and 11).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Le Puy could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Le Puy won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Caen	9	5	0	4	17:12	5	15
8	Le Puy-en-Velay	9	4	1	4	11:9	2	13

Last Results with these Odds

Le Puy - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.69%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Le Puy Foot 43 Auvergne
French Ligue 3
06.03.26	Paris 13 Atletico - Le Puy	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Le Puy - Stade Briochin	1:1 ✺
20.02.26	Rouen FC - Le Puy	1:1 ✺
13.02.26	Le Puy - Orleans	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Bourg-Péronnas - Le Puy	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTTTL
- SM Caen
French Ligue 3
06.03.26	Caen - Châteauroux	2:2 ✺
28.02.26	Valenciennes - Caen	2:1 ✺
20.02.26	Caen - Sochaux	1:3 ✺
13.02.26	Dijon - Caen	3:3 ✺
06.02.26	Caen - Fleury 91	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 3
03.10.25	Caen - Le Puy	2:0

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