Match Info

Paraibano - Round 4

Date: 28 January 2026, Wednesday


	Sousa		Treze

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3
	2.28	2.88	3.1
	2.4	2.71	3.01
	2.4	2.85	3.08
	2.4	2.63	3.1
	2.4	2.78	3.09
	2.36	2.75	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.13)	2.8 ↓ (3)	3.08 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
38.4%

Draw
32.3%

Treze
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

30.1%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

29.6%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Treze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Treze than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Sousa - Treze Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moises (G) 7. Aslen Kevin 8. Diego Viana 6. Gilmar 5. Hebert 2. Iranilson 11. Luis Henrique 4. Marcelo 21. Mateuzinho 3. Yan 9. Yan Philippe	1. Rodolfo Castro (G) 77. Giva 19. Hugo Borges 6. Luan Freire 3. Lucas Rocha 8. Marquinhos 7. Pedro Igor 17. Rivas K. 2. Ryan Santos 11. Vinicius Bala 4. Yan Oliveira
Substitutes
13. Abraao 20. Crystian 17. Estevan 12. Joao Vitor (G) 22. Lucas Gabriel (G) 10. Lucas Zanatelli 19. Matheus Bambu 18. Natalicio 15. Nathan 16. Neto Lisboa 14. Pedro Costa 25. Veraldo	18. Brinquedo 15. Bruno Re 5. Gabriel 22. Italo Melo 12. Joao Vitor (G) 14. Juninho Pianco 9. Lucas Vieira 16. Silvano 10. Thiago Alagoano

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Luis Henrique ⚽,
34', Luan Freire 🟨,
41', Luan Freire ↓, Bruno Re ↑,
41', Vinicius Bala ↓, Silvano ↑,
41', Gilmar 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 0, Luis Henrique ⚽,
55', Luis Henrique 🟨,
62', Hugo Borges ↓, Thiago Alagoano ↑,
73', Aslen Kevin ↓, Lucas Zanatelli ↑,
73', Iranilson ↓, Crystian ↑,
76', Giva ↓, Lucas Vieira ↑,
76', Pedro Igor ↓, Brinquedo ↑,
78', Rivas K. 🟨,
80', Yan Philippe ↓, Matheus Bambu ↑,
80', Mateuzinho ↓, Natalicio ↑,
80', Luis Henrique ↓, Veraldo ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Thiago Alagoano ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 6 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Paraibano (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sousa won 0.

Sousa is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Treze's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Treze may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Sousa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Sousa won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Sousa won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 0.9:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
24.01.26	Botafogo PB - Sousa	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Serra Branca - Sousa	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Sousa - Confiança PB	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Pombal - Sousa	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Sousa - Potiguar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLWWW
- Treze FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
25.01.26	Treze - Atlético Cajazeirense de Desportos	1:2 ✺
22.01.26	Pombal - Treze	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Serra Branca - Treze	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
29.12.25	Treze - Vitória das Tabocas	2:1 ✺
22.12.25	América RN - Treze	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
12.07.25	Sousa - Treze	0:1
04.05.25	Treze - Sousa	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
16.02.25	Treze - Sousa	0:0
Brazilian Serie D
14.07.24	Sousa - Treze	1:1
05.05.24	Treze - Sousa	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paraibano
03.04.24	Treze - Sousa	0:0
31.03.24	Sousa - Treze	2:1

Sousa - Treze: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide