Match Info

Australia Cup - Semi-finals

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		Queensland Lions

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.5	3.9	Watch
	1.66	3.70	4.00
	1.70	3.80	3.75
	1.96	3.45	3.68
	1.79	4.01	4.08	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.6
	1.9	3.55	3.81	Watch
	1.83	3.35	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.65)	3.6 ↓ (4.22)	3.81 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
50.3%

Draw
25.6%

Queensland Lions
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

22%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

23.6%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that South Melbourne's form might have worsened.

Queensland Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for South Melbourne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queensland Lions than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

South Melbourne - Queensland Lions Predictions

Users Predictions: South Melbourne will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diaz Lopez J. (G) 27. Painter-Andrews J. 17. Giannakopoulos T. 4. Jankovic M. (C) 5. Ramazani H. 8. Retre P. 23. Eliopoulos J. 21. Pasquali S. 7. Yoo D. 11. Uchida Y. 16. Cocks A.	66. Riley J. (G) 14. Debele E. 2. Ponting L. 5. Jarrad T. 17. North Z. 3. Hart-Phillips J. 10. Akbari R. 8. Hore M. 12. Carlos S. (C) 23. Beakhurst F. 9. Broderick L.
Substitutes
20. Charlston J. (G) 10. Juach B. 13. Lackay J. 3. Lampard J. 19. Mesourouni A. 22. Mikkola M. 9. Swibel J.	15. Dull U. 16. Grimmond K. 11. Lagos J. 22. Oyet F. 4. Ponting B. 1. Satorie P. (G)
Coaches
Cohadzic S.	Barber D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Hart-Phillips J. ⚽, Broderick L. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Retre P. ↓, Juach B. ↑,
48', Ponting L. 🟨,
53', 1 - 1, Juach B. ⚽, Yoo D. (A),
60', 2 - 1, Juach B. ⚽, Ramazani H. (A),
66', Debele E. ↓, Ponting B. ↑,
66', Beakhurst F. ↓, Lagos J. ↑,
74', Yoo D. ↓, Mikkola M. ↑,
75', Broderick L. ↓, Oyet F. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Juach B. ⚽,
85', Cocks A. ↓, Lampard J. ↑,
90+1', Uchida Y. ↓, Mesourouni A. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by South Melbourne have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lions is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Lions may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lions has had a series of home games.

In this match, South Melbourne is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
11.09.26	Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - South Melbourne	1:0 ✺
Australian Cup
26.08.26	Preston Lions - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
23.08.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWLWL
- Queensland Lions
Australian NPL Queensland
12.09.26	Queensland Lions - Peninsula Power	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Queensland Lions - Peninsula Power	4:1 ✺
Australian Cup
25.08.26	Queensland Lions - North Sunshine Eagles	4:0 ✺
Australian NPL Queensland
14.08.26	Moreton City Excelsior - Queensland Lions	0:2 ✺
Australian Cup
11.08.26	Queensland Lions - Melbourne City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WWWWW

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