Match Info

NPL Victoria - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Jack Edwards Reserve (Melbourne)


	Oakleigh Cannons		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.30	2.90
	1.92	3.35	3.25
	2.31	3.35	3.10
	2.18	3.44	3.12	Watch
	2.20	3.20	3.05
	2.16	3.20	3.07	Watch
	2.16	3.30	3.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.71)	3.31 ↓ (3.55)	3.07 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oakleigh Cannons
42.4%

Draw
27.7%

South Melbourne
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.1%

25.1%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

26.4%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oakleigh Cannons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oakleigh Cannons's form might have worsened.

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting South Melbourne's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oakleigh Cannons than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oakleigh Cannons, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South Melbourne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Oakleigh will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). South Melbourne will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
63', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Oakleigh is Qualified for NPL Victoria (Play Offs Semi~finals)

South Melbourne is Qualified for NPL Victoria (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Oakleigh won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Oakleigh may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Oakleigh is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Oakleigh won 12 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:12. (average 1.7:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Oakleigh won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:7. (average 1.7:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oakleigh Cannons
Australian NPL Victoria
29.08.26	Oakleigh Cannons - Dandenong City	2:3 ✺
22.08.26	Dandenong Thunder - Oakleigh Cannons	0:5 ✺
14.08.26	Oakleigh Cannons - Green Gully	4:1 ✺
31.07.26	Bentleigh Greens - Oakleigh Cannons	0:0 ✺
24.07.26	Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWWTL
- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
06.09.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - South Melbourne	1:0 ✺
Australian Cup
26.08.26	Preston Lions - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
23.08.26	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:2 ✺
15.08.26	Melbourne City Youth - South Melbourne	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
24.07.26	Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne	1:2
19.04.26	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	0:3
23.08.25	Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne	3:0
11.05.25	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	1:2
07.09.24	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	0:1
30.06.24	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	1:2
22.03.24	Oakleigh Cannons - South Melbourne	0:0

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