Match Info

Queensland Premier League - Round 20

Date: 10 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Clive Berghofer Stadium (Toowoomba)


	South West Queensland Thunder		Capalaba

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.75	2.95
	1.92	4.05	2.88
	2.02	4.2	3
	2.15	3.96	2.79	Watch
	1.98	4.14	3.1
	2.5	3.85	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.5)	3.99 ↑ (3.75)	2.83 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South West Queensland Thunder
44.3%

Draw
23.1%

Capalaba
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

24%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

23.7%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South West Queensland Thunder has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South West Queensland Thunder's performance.

Capalaba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Capalaba might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South West Queensland Thunder than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South West Queensland Thunder that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Capalaba than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Capalaba could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

South West Queensland Thunder - Capalaba Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', 1 - 0, Debortoli J. ⚽,
50', 1 - 1, Fukuda R. (Pen),
58', 1 - 2, Fukuda R. ⚽,
71', Pennells B. 🟥,
90+7', 2 - 2, (Pen),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 10 and 11 in the zone Relegation).

SWQ Thunder has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Capalaba has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Capalaba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

SWQ Thunder will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, SWQ Thunder won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, SWQ Thunder won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South West Queensland Thunder
Australian Queensland Premier League
05.08.25	Southside Eagles - South West Queensland Thunder	3:0 ✺
02.08.25	South West Queensland Thunder - Caboolture Sports	3:2 ✺
20.07.25	Ipswich FC - South West Queensland Thunder	4:0 ✺
12.07.25	South West Queensland Thunder - Logan Lightning	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	South West Queensland Thunder - Rochedale Rovers	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWLTL
- Capalaba FC
Australian Queensland Premier League
02.08.25	Holland Park Hawks - Capalaba	2:3 ✺
19.07.25	Capalaba - Southside Eagles	1:0 ✺
12.07.25	Capalaba - Broadbeach United	1:4 ✺
04.07.25	Caboolture Sports - Capalaba	4:1 ✺
28.06.25	Capalaba - Caboolture Sports	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Australian Queensland Premier League
03.05.25	Capalaba - South West Queensland Thunder	1:2
10.08.24	South West Queensland Thunder - Capalaba	2:1
12.05.24	Capalaba - South West Queensland Thunder	2:0

South West Queensland Thunder - Capalaba: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide