Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Aberdeen Sports Ground (Hongkong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Hong-kong	on.cc


	Southern District		North District

	1	X	2
	3	3.8	1.88
	3.45	3.8	1.78
	3.64	4.66	1.72
	3.16	4.31	1.84	Watch
	3.4	3.8	1.8
	3.23	4.05	1.84	Watch
	3.15	3.55	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↑ (3)	4 ↓ (4.25)	1.81 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southern District
27.5%

Draw
22.6%

North District
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

21.5%

47.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.8%

21%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southern District has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

North District has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southern District than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for North District than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Southern District - North District Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ng W. H. (G) 10. Acosta J. L. 16. Chak Ting-Fung 26. Chan H. P. 19. Ichikawa S. 12. Lai K. 8. Lee Ka-Yiu 11. Sasaki S. (C) 14. Song J. 7. Stefan 23. Yung H.	63. Li H. D. (G) 22. Arboleda Y. 20. Kayke David 29. Khan J. 9. Lo Kong-Wai (C) 5. Paez C. 70. Samuel Granada 6. Tsang C. 32. Villalobos E. 11. Weverton Gudula 15. Wong H.
Substitutes
2. Chan Y. T. 28. Chen Ngo-Hin 27. Chong T. A. 32. Hui P. A. (G) 17. Leung J. 79. Lucas Emmanuel 18. Mahama A. 22. Marcus Vinicius 80. Murilo 31. Ngan N. S. (G) 20. Yau C.	18. Dai T. M. 14. Ho C. J. 10. Law Hiu-Chung 12. Li C. 30. Navarro F. 99. Ng C. (G) 88. Pang Ching-Yeung J. 2. Singh B. K. 23. Siu C. N. 3. Wong Chun-Ho 73. Wong W. 7. Yuen Sai-Kit

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
2', Lo Kong-Wai 🟨,
16', 0 - 1, Weverton Gudula ⚽,
20', Ichikawa S. ↓, Lucas Emmanuel ↑,
23', 0 - 2, Samuel Granada ⚽,
34', 1 - 2, Stefan ⚽,
43', Li H. D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lee Ka-Yiu ↓, Chan Y. T. ↑,
46', Yung H. ↓, Murilo ↑,
47', 2 - 2, Lucas Emmanuel ⚽,
62', Acosta J. L. 🟨,
65', Chan H. P. ↓, Chen Ngo-Hin ↑,
68', Tsang C. ↓, Singh B. K. ↑,
79', Weverton Gudula ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
80', Lo Kong-Wai ↓, Wong W. ↑,
84', Acosta J. L. ↓, Marcus Vinicius ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Southern District won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

North District may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, North District has had a series of home games.

North District might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Southern District won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:11. (average 2.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Southern District won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:6. (average 2.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	North District	4	3	1	0	12:0	12	10
5	Southern District	3	2	0	1	6:6	0	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southern District
Hong Kong Premier League
15.03.26	Wofoo Tai Po - Southern District	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Southern District - Wofoo Tai Po	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Southern District - Hong Kong FC	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Hong Kong Rangers - Southern District	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Kitchee - Southern District	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWWLL
- North District FC
Hong Kong Premier League
14.03.26	North District - Hong Kong Rangers	2:1 ✺
Hong Kong FA Cup
08.03.26	Hong Kong FC - North District	1:3 ✺
Hong Kong Premier League
01.03.26	North District - Eastern District	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	North District - Eastern AA	0:3 ✺
Hong Kong Senior Shield
07.02.26	North District - Wofoo Tai Po	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Hong Kong FA Cup
21.12.25	Southern District - North District	1:3
Hong Kong Premier League
02.11.25	North District - Southern District	2:1
27.04.25	North District - Southern District	2:3
15.02.25	Southern District - North District	4:1
05.10.24	Southern District - North District	2:0
16.03.24	Southern District - North District	2:2
24.12.23	North District - Southern District	1:2

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