Match Info

HONG KONG: Premier League - Round 18

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday


	Southern District		Sham Shui Po

	1	X	2
	1.23	5.75	8.5
	1.3	5.5	7	Watch
	1.28	6.3	10.05
	1.23	6.17	10.2
	1.26	5.93	8.5
	1.3	5.2	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.63)	5.81 ↑ (3.99)	8.54 ↑ (4.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southern District
73.2%

Draw
16%

Sham Shui Po
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

22.7%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

21.8%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southern District has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Southern District's performance.

Sham Shui Po has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sham Shui Po might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southern District than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Southern District that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sham Shui Po than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sham Shui Po could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Ng W. H. (G) 16. Chak Ting-Fung 28. Chen N. 90. Jackson 4. Kawase K. 6. Kessi 8. Lee Ka-Yiu 12. Maronesi T. 17. Merkies R. 11. Sasaki S. (C) 33. Togashi R.	1. Leung Hing-Kit (G) 15. Benavides Medeiros N. 77. Chang K. 99. Dunga I. 41. Leung S. Y. 72. Narh S. 24. Ngan C. (C) 22. Odakura K. 13. Pang C. 20. Singh B. K. 10. Wellingsson
Substitutes
26. Chan H. P. 22. Chan Y. T. 1. Choy T. (G) 19. Ichikawa S. 24. Ju Y. 15. Lai K. 13. Leung Y. 18. Mahama A. 31. Ngan N. S. (G) 7. Stefan 20. Yau C. 23. Yung H.	23. Benavides Medeiros O. J. 16. Chang C. H. 21. Chen H. 3. Lau K. S. 95. Lee C. N. 18. Limbu J. 31. Li Y. (G) 4. Ngue P. 28. Tai T. H. (G) 9. Tang T. 17. Wong S. C. S. 2. Yeung H. M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Dunga I. ⚽,
24', Kessi ↓, Lai K. ↑,
29', Sasaki S. 🟨,
30', Singh B. K. 🟨,
45+1', Kawase K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Togashi R. ↓, Stefan ↑,
62', Chak Ting-Fung ↓, Chan H. P. ↑,
62', Chen N. ↓, Ichikawa S. ↑,
72', Lee Ka-Yiu ↓, Ju Y. ↑,
80', Maronesi T. 🟨,
81', Leung S. Y. ↓, Tang T. ↑,
90', Pang C. ↓, Ngue P. ↑,
90+2', 0 - 2, Wellingsson ⚽,
90+2', Wellingsson 🟨,
90+4', Chang K. ↓, Chen H. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southern District
Hong Kong Premier League
13.04.24	Southern District - Hong Kong Rangers	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	Southern District - Hong Kong FC	2:1 ✺
16.03.24	Southern District - North District	2:2 ✺
13.03.24	Hong Kong Rangers - Southern District	0:3 ✺
10.03.24	Eastern AA - Southern District	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWTWL
- Sham Shui Po SA
Hong Kong Premier League
14.04.24	Sham Shui Po - Wofoo Tai Po	0:1 ✺
07.04.24	North District - Sham Shui Po	4:1 ✺
30.03.24	HK U23 - Sham Shui Po	1:3 ✺
17.03.24	Sham Shui Po - Kitchee	0:3 ✺
03.03.24	Sham Shui Po - Hong Kong Rangers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Hong Kong FA Cup
09.12.23	Southern District - Sham Shui Po	1:2 penalties
Hong Kong Premier League
20.08.23	Sham Shui Po - Southern District	1:4
12.03.23	Sham Shui Po - Southern District	0:3
26.11.22	Southern District - Sham Shui Po	3:0

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