Match Info

National League North - Round 4

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday


	Southport		Bedford Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.9
	1.90	3.30	3.40
	1.85	3.4	3.65
	2.19	3.51	3.18
	1.96	3.64	3.51	Watch
	2.15	3.35	3.1
	2.19	3.54	3.03
	2.09	3.35	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.9)	3.44 ↓ (3.81)	3.23 ↓ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southport
44.8%

Draw
26.8%

Bedford Town
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

24.4%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

24.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Bedford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southport than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bedford Town than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Southport - Bedford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Burgess L. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Burgess L. ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Cole R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
73', 3 - 1, Slew J. ⚽,
87', 4 - 1, Lavelle T. ⚽,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Recently, Bedford has had a series of home games.

Southport could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Southport won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Southport won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Bedford: 2.14% Southport: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Bedford	10	5	1	4	14:14	0	16
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13:20	-7	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southport
English National League North
18.08.26	Hednesford Town - Southport	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Southport - Buxton	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
31.07.26	Southport - Wigan Athletic	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	Warrington Town - Southport	2:3 ✺
24.07.26	Southport - United of Manchester	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 TTTWW
- Bedford Town
English National League North
18.08.26	Bedford Town - Buxton	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Bedford Town - Darlington	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Bedford Town - Walton & Hersham	2:0 ✺
11.07.26	Bedford Town - Berkhamsted	2:0 ✺
07.07.26	Bedford Town - Aldershot Town	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
17.01.26	Bedford Town - Southport	2:3
16.08.25	Southport - Bedford Town	3:1

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