Match Info

Division Intermedia - Round 27

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Paraguay	Tigo Sports+


	Sportivo Carapeguá		Deportivo Capiatá

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.10	2.55
	2.40	3.05	2.65
	2.45	3.15	2.72
	2.55	3.18	2.75	Watch
	2.40	2.95	2.65
	2.46	3.63	2.70
	2.39	3.10	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.27)	3.17 ↑ (3)	2.67 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Carapeguá
37.2%

Draw
28.7%

Deportivo Capiatá
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

30%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.3%

28.8%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Carapeguá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Deportivo Capiatá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Carapeguá than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Capiatá than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Capiatá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sportivo Carapeguá - Deportivo Capiatá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Galeano L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
73', 1 - 1, Oviedo A. ⚽,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 6th and 12th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carapeguá won 1.

Carapeguá is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Deportivo Capiatá is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 7 head-to-head meetings, Carapeguá has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:17 (averaging 1.3:2.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Carapeguá against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1.7:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Sp. Carapegua	27	11	6	10	32:39	-7	39
12	Dep. Capiata	27	6	11	10	31:37	-6	29

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Carapeguá - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 39.71%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Carapeguá
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
25.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Sportivo Carapeguá	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Tacuary	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Atlético Tembetary - Sportivo Carapeguá	1:2 ✺
10.09.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Benjamín Aceval	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Sportivo Carapeguá - Paraguarí	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WTWWL
- Deportivo Capiatá
Paraguayan Division Intermedia
27.09.26	Deportivo Capiatá - 12 de Junio	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	Encarnación - Deportivo Capiatá	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Deportivo Capiatá - Deportivo Santaní	0:1 ✺
09.09.26	Fernando de la Mora - Deportivo Capiatá	1:0 ✺
03.09.26	Deportivo Capiatá - 3 de Noviembre	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Division Intermedia
27.06.26	Deportivo Capiatá - Sportivo Carapeguá	5:2
04.10.25	Sportivo Carapeguá - Deportivo Capiatá	2:2
30.06.25	Deportivo Capiatá - Sportivo Carapeguá	1:1
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.11.13	Deportivo Capiatá - Sportivo Carapeguá	3:1
21.08.13	Sportivo Carapeguá - Deportivo Capiatá	3:2
02.06.13	Sportivo Carapeguá - Deportivo Capiatá	0:2
31.03.13	Deportivo Capiatá - Sportivo Carapeguá	2:0

Sportivo Carapeguá - Deportivo Capiatá: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide