Match Info

Isthmian League Premier Division - Round 40

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	St Albans City		Aveley

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.45	2.45
	2.41	3.57	2.52
	2.38	3.79	2.48	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.45
	2.38	3.46	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.69)	3.5 ↓ (3.68)	2.48 ↑ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St Albans City
37.7%

Draw
25.8%

Aveley
36.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.2%

25%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

23.8%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St Albans City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Aveley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Albans City than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with St Albans City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aveley than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aveley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

St Albans City - Aveley Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Nwabueze J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Isthmian League Premier Division (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St Albans won 2.

St Albans is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Aveley has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, St Albans won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, St Albans won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	St. Albans	10	6	2	2	21:14	7	20
17	Aveley	13	4	2	7	20:21	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Aveley - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 40.85%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St Albans City
English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.04.26	Wingate & Finchley - St Albans City	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	St Albans City - Folkestone Invicta	1:2 ✺
28.03.26	Cray Valley Paper Mills - St Albans City	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	St Albans City - Ramsgate	2:0 ✺
14.03.26	Chichester City - St Albans City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLLWT
- Aveley
English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.04.26	Aveley - Hashtag United	3:1 ✺
04.04.26	Chatham Town - Aveley	0:1 ✺
28.03.26	Aveley - Cray Wanderers	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Aveley - Cheshunt	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Billericay Town - Aveley	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Aveley - St Albans City	0:2
English Isthmian League Premier Division
06.09.25	Aveley - St Albans City	1:1
English National League South
25.02.25	St Albans City - Aveley	3:0
25.11.24	Aveley - St Albans City	6:3
23.03.24	Aveley - St Albans City	2:1
28.10.23	St Albans City - Aveley	0:1

St Albans City - Aveley