Match Info

USL League Two

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Croix		Edgewater Castle

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.70	2.25
	2.28	4.15	2.32
	2.43	4.46	2.3
	2.35	4.41	2.3	Watch
	2.25	4.4	2.19
	2.45	4.01	2.37
	2.44	3.65	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.05)	4.11 ↑ (3.8)	2.29 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Croix
38.3%

Draw
22.1%

Edgewater Castle
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

24.1%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

22%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Croix has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Croix's form might have worsened.

Edgewater Castle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Edgewater Castle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Croix than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Edgewater Castle than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Edgewater Castle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

St. Croix - Edgewater Castle Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (6 - 0)

Preview

Recent performances by St. Croix have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Edgewater Castle has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Edgewater Castle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, St. Croix has had a series of away games.

St. Croix could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- St. Croix SC
USL League Two
01.07.26	Minneapolis City - St. Croix	3:0 ✺
21.06.26	Sueño - St. Croix	3:1 ✺
10.06.26	Chicago Dutch Lions - St. Croix	1:4 ✺
07.06.26	RKC Third Coast - St. Croix	1:0 ✺
31.05.26	St. Croix - River Light	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWLW
- Edgewater Castle FC
USL League Two
24.06.26	Rockford Raptors - Edgewater Castle	3:2 ✺
10.06.26	River Light - Edgewater Castle	7:1 ✺
06.06.26	Edgewater Castle - Rochester Minnesota	2:3 ✺
31.05.26	Chicago Dutch Lions - Edgewater Castle	2:1 ✺
28.05.26	Edgewater Castle - Sueño	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

St. Croix - Edgewater Castle: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide