Match Info

GERMANY: 2. BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 4

Date: 27 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Nova Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Bundesliga
Greece	Nova Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports 3
Slovenia	Sport TV
Sweden	Viaplay


	St. Pauli		Magdeburg

	1	X	2
	1.83	4	4	Watch
				Watch
	1.89	3.8	3.65
	1.85	4.08	4.11
	1.73	3.7	3.6	Watch
	1.82	3.94	3.94	Watch
	1.84	3.95	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.71)	3.91 ↓ (4)	3.88 ↓ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
51.6%

Draw
24.1%

Magdeburg
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

23.6%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

23%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Magdeburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Magdeburg than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

St. Pauli - Magdeburg Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Pauli will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 5. Wahl H. 8. Smith E. 4. Nemeth D. 2. Saliakas M. 7. Irvine J. (C) 10. Hartel M. 21. Ritzka L. 17. Afolayan O. 19. Albers A. 26. Saad E.	1. Reimann D. (G) 2. Piccini C. 6. Elfadli D. 15. Heber D. 11. El Hankouri M. 24. Hugonet J. 29. Conde A. (C) 19. Bell Bell L. 37. Ito T. 26. Schuler L. 23. Atik B.
Substitutes
18. Banks S. 16. Boukhalfa C. 30. Burchert S. (G) 25. Dzwigala A. 11. Eggestein J. 29. Gunther L. 24. Metcalfe C. 15. Sinani D. 23. Treu P.	8. Arslan A. 9. Castaignos L. 10. Ceka J. 25. Gnaka S. 3. Hoti A. 13. Krempicki C. 5. Lawrence J. 17. Nollenberger A. 42. Pollersbeck J. (G)
Coaches
Hurzeler F.	Titz C.

Preview

St. Pauli is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Magdeburg is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Magdeburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

St. Pauli will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches St. Pauli won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 14-5.

Including matches at home between the teams St. Pauli won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German 2 Bundesliga
19.08.23	Greuther Fürth - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
12.08.23	Atlas Delmenhorst - St. Pauli	0:5 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
05.08.23	St. Pauli - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:0 ✺
29.07.23	Kaiserslautern - St. Pauli	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
22.07.23	St. Pauli - Hapoel Tel Aviv	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWTWW
- FC Magdeburg
German 2 Bundesliga
20.08.23	Holstein Kiel - Magdeburg	2:4 ✺
German DFB Pokal
14.08.23	Jahn Regensburg - Magdeburg	1:2 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
06.08.23	Magdeburg - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:1 ✺
29.07.23	Wehen Wiesbaden - Magdeburg	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
23.07.23	Magdeburg - Sevilla	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
18.02.23	Magdeburg - St. Pauli	1:2
14.08.22	St. Pauli - Magdeburg	3:0
German DFB Pokal
07.08.21	Magdeburg - St. Pauli	2:3
German 2 Bundesliga
22.12.18	St. Pauli - Magdeburg	4:1
05.08.18	Magdeburg - St. Pauli	1:2

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