Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Petersen M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Holstein Kiel		Magdeburg

	1	X	2
	3	3.9	2.15	Watch
	2.82	3.75	2.15	Watch
	3.1	4.1	2.27
	2.93	3.92	2.19	Watch
	2.88	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.01	3.91	2.16	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.54)	3.81 ↑ (3.75)	2.21 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 0.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
32.6%

Draw
24.7%

Magdeburg
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

24.7%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

23.8%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Magdeburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Holstein Kiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Magdeburg than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Magdeburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	12.5%	62.5%

Holstein Kiel - Magdeburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Magdeburg will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Magdeburg: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Magdeburg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Magdeburg (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Magdeburg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weiner T. (G) 23. Rosenboom L. 26. Zec D. 13. Nekic I. 6. Ivezic M. 20. Kapralik A. 8. Tohumcu U. 28. Meffert J. (C) 15. Davidsen K. 10. Therkelsen J. 19. Harres P.	1. Reimann D. (C) 7. Bockhorn H. 16. Mathisen M. 24. Hugonet J. 19. Musonda L. 8. Ulrich L. 21. Michel F. 6. Stalmach D. 17. Nollenberger A. 22. Zukowski M. 23. Atik B.
Substitutes
11. Bernhardsson A. 3. Komenda M. 21. Krumrey J. (G) 25. Muller M. 29. Niehoff N. 40. Parduzi L. 2. Roslyng F. 22. Schwab S. 49. Ugoh I.	9. Breunig M. 27. Hercher P. 11. Holmstrom A. 40. Kampa R. (G) 13. Krempicki C. 5. Muller T. 10. Pesch N. 18. Tachie R.
Coaches
Walter T.	Sander P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Davidsen K. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
40', 0 - 1, Hugonet J. ⚽, Stalmach D. (A),
45+2', 0 - 2, Stalmach D. ⚽, Nollenberger A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 0 - 3, Atik B. ⚽,
60', Therkelsen J. ↓, Bernhardsson A. ↑,
60', Tohumcu U. ↓, Ugoh I. ↑,
62', Stalmach D. ↓, Krempicki C. ↑,
65', Bockhorn H. ↓, Hercher P. ↑,
67', Zec D. 🟨,
71', Nekic I. ↓, Roslyng F. ↑,
71', Meffert J. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
81', Michel F. 🟨,
81', Kapralik A. 🟨,
83', Zukowski M. ↓, Holmstrom A. ↑,
83', Nollenberger A. ↓, Pesch N. ↑,
90', Holmstrom A. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 3, Kapralik A. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 0.

Holstein Kiel is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Magdeburg has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Magdeburg might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury) Kelati A. (Muscle Injury) Skrzybski S. (Calf Injury) Tolkin J. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Magdeburg: Chahed T. (Hamstring Injury) Heber D. (Knee Injury) Hyrylainen L. (Shin Injury) Loric S. (Foot Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.7:2.2).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Magdeburg: 3.2% Holstein Kiel: 0.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Magdeburg	7	4	1	2	14:9	5	13
18	Holstein Kiel	7	0	4	3	7:11	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Holstein Kiel - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.48%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Magdeburg - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.86%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
02.05.26	Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Hertha Berlin - Holstein Kiel	0:1 ✺
17.04.26	Holstein Kiel - Kaiserslautern	3:0 ✺
10.04.26	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Holstein Kiel	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Holstein Kiel - Preußen Münster	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWWWT
- FC Magdeburg
German 2 Bundesliga
03.05.26	Magdeburg - Hertha Berlin	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Nürnberg - Magdeburg	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Magdeburg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Paderborn - Magdeburg	4:3 ✺
04.04.26	Magdeburg - Bochum	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
13.12.25	Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel	3:3
02.02.24	Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel	1:1
German DFB Pokal
01.11.23	Holstein Kiel - Magdeburg	3:4 penalties
German 2 Bundesliga
20.08.23	Holstein Kiel - Magdeburg	2:4
11.02.23	Holstein Kiel - Magdeburg	2:3
07.08.22	Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel	1:2
10.02.19	Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel	1:1

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