Match Info

NM Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Nadderud Stadion (Bekkestua)


	Stabæk		Mjøndalen

	1	X	2
	1.29	5.5	9
	1.26	5.25	8.25
	1.28	5.5	10	Watch
	1.28	5.83	9.97
	1.37	5.05	7.37	Watch
	1.3	5	8.5
	1.32	5.5	8.9
	1.28	5.5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.43)	5.39 ↑ (4.7)	9 ↑ (5.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stabæk
72.2%

Draw
17.4%

Mjøndalen
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

19.7%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.2%

18.9%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stabæk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Stabæk's performance.

Mjøndalen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mjøndalen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stabæk than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mjøndalen than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Stabæk - Mjøndalen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Stabæk (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stabæk will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stabæk will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Stabæk (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Mjøndalen (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossbach S. (G) 19. Riise F. 2. Pedersen K. 4. Naess N. (C) 20. Andresen A. 17. Olderheim S. 27. Danso E. 24. Kostadinov K. 7. Vinge R. E. 8. Lankhof-Dahlby M. 11. Spiten-Nysaeter O.	87. Oy L. (G) 26. Eriksen S. (C) 2. Vik I. 4. Mrakovic T. 15. Kvam F. 37. Singh B. 17. Bata K. 6. Skau J. 28. Sawaneh E. 20. Conteh A. 7. Reutersward L.
Substitutes
9. Diabate B. 30. Ellegaard F. 10. Geelmuyden H. 12. Gunnerod L. (G) 14. Nielsen M. 21. Onsrud K. 22. Opseth K. 5. Skjelvik J. 15. Veum O.	24. Birk D. 11. Bruusgaard J. 44. Foss-Erstad T. 66. Nicol L. A. 55. Olafsen U. K. 1. Solberg K. (G) 34. Ween L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Oy L. (Own goal),
17', 1 - 1, Sawaneh E. ⚽,
40', 2 - 1, Lankhof-Dahlby M. ⚽, Vinge R. E. (A),
45', Oy L. ↓, Solberg K. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
51', Bata K. 🟨,
52', Kostadinov K. 🟨,
55', 3 - 1, Naess N. ⚽, Olderheim S. (A),
60', Mrakovic T. 🟥,
63', Singh B. ↓, Bruusgaard J. ↑,
63', Reutersward L. ↓, Birk D. ↑,
66', 3 - 2, Conteh A. ⚽,
69', 4 - 2, Spiten-Nysaeter O. ⚽, Vinge R. E. (A),
72', 4 - 3, Bruusgaard J. ⚽, Sawaneh E. (A),
75', Olderheim S. ↓, Geelmuyden H. ↑,
75', Danso E. ↓, Onsrud K. ↑,
75', Pedersen K. ↓, Nielsen M. ↑,
76', Vinge R. E. ↓, Ellegaard F. ↑,
85', Riise F. ↓, Veum O. ↑,
90+3', Kvam F. ↓, Ween L. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stabæk won 4.

Stabæk is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mjøndalen is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Stabæk is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stabæk won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 34:19. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Stabæk won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 2.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stabæk Fotball
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.05.25	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:0 ✺
12.05.25	Åsane - Stabæk	1:1 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.25	Stabæk - Haugesund	2:1 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
04.05.25	Stabæk - Skeid	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Moss - Stabæk	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTWWL
- Mjøndalen IF
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.05.25	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:0 ✺
11.05.25	Mjøndalen - Ranheim	1:4 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
07.05.25	Strømmen - Mjøndalen	1:3 ✺
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
03.05.25	Sogndal - Mjøndalen	1:0 ✺
28.04.25	Mjøndalen - Start	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Adeccoligaen
16.05.25	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:0
02.11.24	Mjøndalen - Stabæk	3:0
12.06.24	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	4:2
29.10.22	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	2:0
03.07.22	Mjøndalen - Stabæk	2:4
Norwegian Eliteserien
21.08.21	Stabæk - Mjøndalen	1:1
28.07.21	Mjøndalen - Stabæk	1:2

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