Match Info

Division 1 - Round 4

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Sulikowski D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Stal Mielec		Polonia Bytom

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3
	2.15	3.40	2.90
	2.2	3.3	3
	2.21	3.63	3.15
	2.19	3.5	3.11	Watch
	2.16	3.55	3.1
	2.1	3.38	3.06
	2.14	3.2	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2)	3.41 ↓ (3.76)	3.03 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
42.5%

Draw
27.1%

Polonia Bytom
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

24.6%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

23.8%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Polonia Bytom has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Polonia Bytom than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Gostomski M. (G) 2. Kukulowicz B. 94. Kwiecien B. 44. Puerto I. 23. Getinger K. (C) 32. Gerbowski F. 14. Koscielny K. 19. Gmur T. 7. Cebula M. 78. Cybulski K. 90. Kruszelnicki P.	1. Banasik W. (G) 14. Szymusik G. 77. Szymanski J. 17. Wolkowicz K. 6. Wolski M. 21. Kadziolka S. 8. Labojko M. 7. Zielinski L. 5. Mioc B. 11. Andrzejczak K. 9. Wojtyra K. (C)
Substitutes
41. Chrapusta P. (G) 30. Malek J. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 47. Oure S. 77. Sadlocha K. 6. Sommerfeld K. 26. Stala M. 38. Wyparlo M. 20. Ziobron E.	13. Gajgier A. 25. Konieczny D. 30. Krzyzak O. 20. Labedzki J. 10. Michalski K. 19. Rumin D. 16. Stefanski P. 26. Wziech M. 33. Zwolinski F. (G)
Coaches
Skiba D.	Gerega K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Gmur T. ⚽, Getinger K. (A),
14', Labojko M. 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Andrzejczak K. ⚽, Szymusik G. (A),
29', Cebula M. 🟨,
40', Wolkowicz K. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Getinger K. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', 3 - 1, Cybulski K. ⚽, Gmur T. (A),
57', Wolski M. ↓, Stefanski P. ↑,
63', Wojtyra K. ↓, Rumin D. ↑,
63', Mioc B. ↓, Wziech M. ↑,
65', 4 - 1, Cybulski K. ⚽, Kruszelnicki P. (A),
76', Cybulski K. ↓, Wyparlo M. ↑,
76', Cebula M. ↓, Oure S. ↑,
79', 4 - 2, Rumin D. ⚽,
86', Kadziolka S. ↓, Krzyzak O. ↑,
88', Kwiecien B. ↓, Sommerfeld K. ↑,
90+1', 5 - 2, Wyparlo M. ⚽, Getinger K. (A),
90+1', Wyparlo M. 🟨,
90+2', Gmur T. ↓, Malek J. ↑,
90+2', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Sadlocha K. ↑,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Polonia Bytom may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Stal Mielec has had a series of home games.

Stal Mielec is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 10:9. (average 2.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 4:2).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Stal Mielec: 0.41% Polonia Bytom: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Polonia Bytom	9	1	6	2	14:17	-3	9
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
08.08.26	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Stal Mielec - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała	3:3 ✺
26.07.26	Unia Skierniewice - Stal Mielec	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Stal Mielec - Avia Świdnik	3:4 ✺
17.07.26	Stal Mielec - JKS Jarosław	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TTWLT
- Polonia Bytom
Polish Division 1
07.08.26	Polonia Bytom - Pogoń Siedlce	2:2 ✺
31.07.26	ŁKS Łódź - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
24.07.26	Polonia Bytom - Warta Poznań	4:3 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Opava - Polonia Bytom	3:2 ✺
04.07.26	Polonia Bytom - Rekord Bielsko-Biała	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
24.05.26	Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom	4:1
22.11.25	Polonia Bytom - Stal Mielec	4:1
Polish Division 2
21.11.15	Stal Mielec - Polonia Bytom	4:3
01.08.15	Polonia Bytom - Stal Mielec	1:1

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