Match Info

Division 1 - Round 27

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Stadion MZOS Znicz (Pruszków)

Referee: Lezny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.4	2.63	Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.72	Watch
	2.34	3.75	2.94
	2.22	3.87	2.81	Watch
	2.25	3.4	2.63
	2.42	3.5	2.7	Watch
	1.81	3.33	3.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.81)	3.55 ↑ (3.33)	2.86 ↓ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
41.4%

Draw
26.2%

Stal Mielec
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

26.6%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

27.9%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki's form might have worsened.

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stal Mielec's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stal Mielec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	15.4%	23.1%

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Grodzisk Mazowiecki will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grodzisk Mazowiecki: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Stal Mielec (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Stal Mielec (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Stal Mielec (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kieszek P. (G) 99. Noiszewski K. 16. Gajgier A. 6. Farbiszewski B. 52. Olewinski O. 21. Los K. (C) 77. Adkonis J. 23. Adamczyk H. 4. Korczakowski I. 27. Konstantyn J. 9. Gieroba S.	99. Gostomski M. (G) 27. Diez A. 2. Szala D. 44. Puerto I. 5. Matynia H. 24. Nunez C. 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 6. Pisek J. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 11. Odolak K. 78. Cybulski K.
Substitutes
5. Dias M. 25. Glacel M. (G) 2. Glogowski K. 10. Jaron D. 7. Jedrasik J. 13. Lis J. 17. Niewiadomski J. 31. Staniszewski J. 71. Szczepaniak M.	10. Domanski M. 32. Gerbowski F. 22. Kavcic M. 71. Kowalski J. 88. Lukic D. 1. Matys M. (G) 15. Senger M. 20. Szeliga B. 70. Tsykalo Y.
Coaches
Stokowiec P.	Mamrot I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Los K. 🟨,
31', Adkonis J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', Korczakowski I. ↓, Szczepaniak M. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Wlazlo P. (Penalty Awarded),
76', Olewinski O. ↓, Jedrasik J. ↑,
76', Gieroba S. ↓, Lis J. ↑,
79', Wlazlo P. ↓, Tsykalo Y. ↑,
79', Odolak K. ↓, Lukic D. ↑,
79', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
82', 1 - 1, Los K. ⚽, Lis J. (A),
82', Cybulski K. ↓, Kowalski J. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Tsykalo Y. ⚽, Puerto I. (A),
85', Adamczyk H. ↓, Jaron D. ↑,
85', Konstantyn J. ↓, Niewiadomski J. ↑,
87', Farbiszewski B. 🟨,
88', Nunez C. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Stadion MZOS Znicz.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Grodzisk Mazowiecki is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Grodzisk Mazowiecki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Stal Mielec: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 48.93%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Polish Division 1
20.03.26	Górnik Łęczna - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Warsaw	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
28.02.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Polonia Bytom	2:1 ✺
21.02.26	Znicz Pruszków - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLWT
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
22.03.26	Stal Mielec - Wieczysta Kraków	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Stal Mielec - GKS Tychy	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Odra Opole - Stal Mielec	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Stal Mielec - ŁKS Łódź	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2

Upcoming Matches