Match Info

Besta deild karla - Round 16

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday

Location: Samsung völlurinn (Gardabaer)

Referee: Thrastarson S. H. (Ice)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland
World	Onefootball


	Stjarnan		Afturelding

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	3.9	4
	1.75	4.05	3.85	Watch
	1.71	4.37	4.34
	1.66	4.22	4.49	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4
	1.69	4.3	4.24	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	4.11 ↓ (4.16)	4.15 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stjarnan
54.8%

Draw
22.7%

Afturelding
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

22.4%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

21.8%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stjarnan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Afturelding has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afturelding than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	7.1%	0%

Stjarnan - Afturelding Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Stjarnan (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Stjarnan (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Stjarnan will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Stjarnan (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Olafsson A. (G) 4. Thorisson T. 5. Kristjansson G. (C) 6. Ingimarsson S. T. 32. Orvarsson O. 10. Fridjonsson S. 11. Birgisson A. 8. Gunnarsson J. 29. Hauksson A. 23. Waren B. 99. Bjarnason A.	1. Andresson J. (G) 2. Sigmarsson G. 8. Jonsson A. 3. Andresson A. 6. Saevarsson A. (C) 30. Sigurjonsson O. 16. Barkarson B. B. 21. Hafthorsson T. G. 7. Johannsson A. 77. Magnusson H. 20. Stokke B.
Substitutes
1. Birnuson A. (G) 37. Brink H. O. 44. Caulker S. 7. Eggertsson O. 28. Gudlaugsson B. 78. Hauksson B. 49. Heimisson A. 24. Jonsson S. 18. Nokkvason G.	25. Bjarnason G. 27. Cogic E. 79. Dadason R. 19. Hugason S. 12. Johannesson A. (G) 28. Kassi L. 23. Palsson S. 11. Ragnarsson A. 4. Runolfsson B.
Coaches
Elisabetarson J.	Einarsson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Hafthorsson T. G. ⚽,
15', Waren B. 🟨,
28', Johannsson A. 🟨,
31', Gunnarsson J. 🟨,
35', Andresson A. 🟨,
37', Ingimarsson S. T. ↓, Nokkvason G. ↑,
37', Andresson J. 🟨,
39', Andresson A. 🟥,
42', Johannsson A. ↓, Bjarnason G. ↑,
45+2', Thorisson T. 🟨,
45+5', Saevarsson A. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Johannsson A. ↓, Palsson S. ↑,
46', Thorisson T. ↓, Eggertsson O. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Waren B. ⚽, Fridjonsson S. (A),
60', Hafthorsson T. G. ↓, Runolfsson B. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Bjarnason A. ⚽, Waren B. (A),
75', 3 - 1, Nokkvason G. ⚽,
79', Stokke B. ↓, Ragnarsson A. ↑,
79', Barkarson B. B. ↓, Kassi L. ↑,
83', Gunnarsson J. ↓, Gudlaugsson B. ↑,
85', 4 - 1, Eggertsson O. ⚽,
86', Fridjonsson S. 🟨,
87', Birgisson A. ↓, Brink H. O. ↑,
87', Orvarsson O. ↓, Jonsson S. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: ) and 7 in the zone Besta deild karla (Relegation Group: )).

Recent form of Stjarnan has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Afturelding's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Stjarnan has had a series of away games.

In this match, Stjarnan is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Stjarnan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Stjarnan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UMF Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
14.07.25	ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Stjarnan	1:0 ✺
07.07.25	FH Hafnarfjordur - Stjarnan	1:1 ✺
Icelandic Cup
01.07.25	Valur - Stjarnan	3:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
27.06.25	Stjarnan - Breiðablik	1:4 ✺
22.06.25	Akraness - Stjarnan	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTLLW
- Afturelding
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
17.07.25	Afturelding - Fram	1:1 ✺
03.07.25	Afturelding - Breiðablik	2:2 ✺
29.06.25	Vikingur Reykjavik - Afturelding	2:1 ✺
23.06.25	ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Afturelding	1:2 ✺
Icelandic Cup
19.06.25	Afturelding - Fram	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Icelandic Besta-deild karla
05.05.25	Afturelding - Stjarnan	3:0
Icelandic League Cup
10.02.23	Stjarnan - Afturelding	4:1

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