Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - Second stage - Round 6

Date: 5 October 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	São Bernardo		Volta Redonda

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3	2.75
	2.5	3.05	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.26	2.72
	2.58	3.2	2.74	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3
	2.56	3.18	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3.05	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (1.77)	3.12 ↓ (3.25)	2.77 ↓ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
37.5%

Draw
29.4%

Volta Redonda
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

28%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

30.8%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that São Bernardo's form might have worsened.

Volta Redonda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Volta Redonda's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+19.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for São Bernardo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volta Redonda than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Volta Redonda, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

São Bernardo - Volta Redonda Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Volta Redonda will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 97. Augusto 55. Breno 28. Davi Gabriel 90. Felipe Garcia 3. Helder Maciel 21. Hugo Sanches 9. Joao Carlos 31. Lucas Lima 14. Luiz Filipe 4. Rafael Forster	12. Jean Drosny (G) 5. Bruno Barra 9. Bruno Santos 16. Douglas Skilo 4. Gabriel Bahia 21. Henrique Silva 13. Lucas Souza 11. MV 8. Robinho 6. Sanchez Costa 2. Wellington Silva
Substitutes
91. Alan Santos 27. Anareto K. (G) 43. Joao Ramos 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 33. Kaua Jesus 99. Kayke 75. Maycon Douglas 22. Mika 20. Nycollas 88. Silvinho 23. Wesley Dias 47. Ze Oliveira	1. Avelino (G) 15. Charles 14. Emerson Junior 17. Evanderson 29. Heliardo 22. Juninho Monteiro 18. Keliton 20. Marcos Junior 26. Muriel 30. Vini Moura
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Rogerio Correa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Rafael Forster ⚽,
27', Bruno Santos 🟨,
33', Rafael Forster 🟨,
39', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Henrique Silva ↓, Patric Calmon ↑,
51', Luiz Filipe ↓, Silvinho ↑,
61', Bruno Santos ↓, Keliton ↑,
62', Wellington Silva ↓, Muriel ↑,
69', Sanchez Costa ↓, Juninho Monteiro ↑,
73', 🟨,
73', Douglas Skilo ↓, Heliardo ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Patric Calmon ⚽,
85', 1 - 2, Gabriel Bahia ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 3 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

São Bernardo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:7 (average 1.3:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie C
29.09.24	Remo - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
21.09.24	Botafogo PB - São Bernardo	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	São Bernardo - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
09.09.24	São Bernardo - Remo	2:2 ✺
01.09.24	Volta Redonda - São Bernardo	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTWTL
- Volta Redonda
Brazilian Serie C
28.09.24	Volta Redonda - Botafogo PB	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Rio
25.09.24	Serrano FC - Volta Redonda	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
21.09.24	Volta Redonda - Remo	1:1 ✺
15.09.24	Remo - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
08.09.24	Botafogo PB - Volta Redonda	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
01.09.24	Volta Redonda - São Bernardo	3:1
14.07.24	Volta Redonda - São Bernardo	1:3
19.06.23	São Bernardo - Volta Redonda	0:3

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