Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 28

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Marijampole Football Arena (Marijampole)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sūduva Marijampolė		Panevėžys

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.80	5.25
	1.40	4.10	5.75
	1.56	4.15	5.86
	1.53	4.15	5.68	Watch
	1.51	4.05	5.80
	1.49	3.88	5.82	Watch
	1.51	3.80	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.44)	3.99 ↑ (3.94)	5.62 ↓ (7.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sūduva Marijampolė
60.9%

Draw
22.9%

Panevėžys
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

23.6%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.3%

22.3%

11.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sūduva Marijampolė has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Panevėžys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sūduva Marijampolė than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sūduva Marijampolė, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panevėžys than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sūduva Marijampolė - Panevėžys Predictions

Users Predictions: Sūduva Marijampolė will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Plukas I. (G) 75. Stockunas E. 23. Grigalava R. 5. Baltrunas Z. 4. Uzochukwu H. 14. Steponavicius F. 8. Lawson S. (C) 6. Sabo A. 7. Seck I. 94. Sanokho S. M. 19. Tangiri F.	12. Valius L. (G) 32. Rasimavicius R. 77. Bizoza P. 15. Janusevskis J. (C) 66. Balsys D. 8. Kouadio S. 6. Ramanauskas M. 28. Burdzilauskas E. 79. Paulauskas V. 24. Petkevicius N. 16. Bacanin M.
Substitutes
26. Antanavicius D. 11. Chajia M. 10. Haydary O. 9. Lucky T. 13. Mikulenas M. 18. Milasius T. 66. Pacesa R. (G) 16. Tsykalo Y. 12. Zenkevicius G. (G) 15. Zivanovic A.	27. Asamoah K. 34. Asante I. 95. Bopesu J. 22. Brazinskas A. (G) 80. Elivelton 33. Keita S. 13. Kerkez S. 50. Krasniqi L. 17. Kurtsev O. 5. van den Bos M. 7. Veliulis E.
Coaches
Vencevicius D.	Korkeakunnas T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Janusevskis J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Paulauskas V. ↓, Asamoah K. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Tangiri F. ⚽,
64', Rasimavicius R. ↓, Bopesu J. ↑,
64', Bacanin M. ↓, Asante I. ↑,
64', Petkevicius N. ↓, Elivelton ↑,
65', Seck I. ↓, Chajia M. ↑,
65', Steponavicius F. ↓, Haydary O. ↑,
75', Tangiri F. ↓, Mikulenas M. ↑,
75', Sanokho S. M. ↓, Lucky T. ↑,
77', Ramanauskas M. 🟨,
81', 2 - 0, Chajia M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sūduva won 2.

Sūduva has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Panevėžys's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Sūduva is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Sūduva will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sūduva won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 16:22. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sūduva won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Suduva	28	13	11	4	39:25	14	50
7	FK Panevezys	28	9	5	14	29:43	-14	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sūduva Marijampolė
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
17.08.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Banga Gargždai - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:3 ✺
20.07.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Hegelmann Litauen	5:1 ✺
06.07.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Transinvest	0:0 ✺
29.06.26	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTW
- FK Panevėžys
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
17.08.26	FA Šiauliai - Panevėžys	1:0 ✺
10.08.26	Transinvest - Panevėžys	0:2 ✺
03.08.26	Panevėžys - Džiugas Telšiai	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys	2:1 penalties ✺
23.07.26	Panevėžys - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
29.06.26	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2
25.04.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Panevėžys	1:0
22.02.26	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	0:0
Lithuanian Cup
16.09.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Panevėžys	0:2
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
12.09.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Panevėžys	1:1
07.07.25	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2
04.05.25	Sūduva Marijampolė - Panevėžys	0:0

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