Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)

Referee: Shurman D. (Ukr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Lithuania	Delfi TV
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tobol Kostanay		Panevėžys

	1	X	2
	1.30	4.20	9.00	Watch
	1.28	5.25	9.00
	1.22	5.60	12.50	Watch
	1.28	5.91	11.21
	1.28	5.57	9.81	Watch
	1.21	5.85	11.00
	1.34	4.88	9.95	Watch
	1.28	5.40	9.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.41)	5.33 ↑ (4.5)	10.21 ↑ (7.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
73.3%

Draw
17.5%

Panevėžys
9.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.7%

20.9%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

19.8%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tobol Kostanay's performance.

Panevėžys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Panevėžys than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.9%	15.8%	5.3%

Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Tobol Kostanay will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 60.62% – 97.28%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Ustimenko D. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 72. Senhadji R. 5. Ndiaye P. 25. Borsic A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 10. Chesnokov I. 14. Talal A. 17. Zuev A. 18. Milovanovic U.	1. Cerniauskas V. (C) 28. Burdzilauskas E. 13. Kerkez S. 33. Keita S. 66. Balsys D. 77. Bizoza P. 6. Ramanauskas M. 34. Asante I. 79. Paulauskas V. 24. Petkevicius N. 27. Asamoah K.
Substitutes
3. Asrankulov R. 34. Bakhytkiriev S. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 4. Cavnic N. 13. Cisse A. 30. Guerra L. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 56. Musaev E. 19. Zhumat D. 57. Zinadin A.	16. Bacanin M. 95. Bopesu J. 22. Brazinskas A. (G) 80. Elivelton 15. Janusevskis J. 8. Kouadio S. 17. Kurtsev O. 4. Mzoughi R. 32. Rasimavicius R. 12. Valius L. (G) 5. van den Bos M.
Coaches
Romashchenko M.	Korkeakunnas T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
31', Myakish M. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Petkevicius N. ⚽, Asante I. (A),
34', Ramanauskas M. 🟨,
35', Asante I. ↓, Rasimavicius R. ↑,
45+3', 1 - 1, Talal A. ⚽, Chesnokov I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Paulauskas V. 🟨,
57', Asamoah K. 🟨,
63', Milovanovic U. ↓, Guerra L. ↑,
64', Paulauskas V. ↓, Kurtsev O. ↑,
64', Petkevicius N. ↓, Bacanin M. ↑,
77', Myakish M. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
77', Borsic A. ↓, Asrankulov R. ↑,
84', Bizoza P. ↓, Bopesu J. ↑,
84', Asamoah K. ↓, van den Bos M. ↑,
90', Guerra L. 🟨,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
98', Zuev A. ↓, Zhumat D. ↑,
106', Balsys D. ↓, Kouadio S. ↑,
106', Senhadji R. ↓, Cavnic N. ↑,
115', Zhagorov N. ↓, Musaev E. ↑,
118', van den Bos M. 🟨,
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, Guerra L. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Rasimavicius R. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Cavnic N. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Ramanauskas M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Tagybergen A. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Kurtsev O. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Ndiaye P. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Keita S. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Asrankulov R. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Bacanin M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Recent performances by Tobol have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Panevėžys has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Panevėžys may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tobol is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tobol won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Atyrau	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Panevėžys - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.26	Kyzylzhar - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Okzhetpes	3:1 ✺
04.07.26	Altai Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTTWL
- FK Panevėžys
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Panevėžys - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
11.07.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Panevėžys	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1 ✺
29.06.26	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
23.06.26	Minija Kretinga - Panevėžys	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Panevėžys - Tobol Kostanay	1:1

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