Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Aukstaitijos Stadium (Panevėžys)

Referee: Aslam U. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Lithuania	Delfi TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Panevėžys		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.50	1.83	Watch
	3.90	3.20	1.88
	3.85	3.50	1.86	Watch
	3.81	3.60	1.90
	1.32	3.80	19.80	Watch
	3.70	3.55	1.85
	3.71	3.71	1.94	Watch
	3.95	3.40	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (3.2)	3.53 ↑ (3.39)	4.12 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Panevėžys
35.4%

Draw
34.8%

Tobol Kostanay
29.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

26.9%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

26.7%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Panevėžys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Panevėžys's performance.

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tobol Kostanay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Panevėžys than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Panevėžys that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+15.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tobol Kostanay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16%	28%	56%

Panevėžys - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Panevėžys will win (votes: 4 - 16%). Tobol will win (votes: 14 - 56%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 28%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 36.5% – 75.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cerniauskas V. (C) 28. Burdzilauskas E. 33. Keita S. 13. Kerkez S. 66. Balsys D. 77. Bizoza P. 6. Ramanauskas M. 34. Asante I. 79. Paulauskas V. 27. Asamoah K. 24. Petkevicius N.	1. Busurmanov S. (G) 21. Zhagorov N. 4. Cavnic N. 72. Senhadji R. 25. Borsic A. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 10. Chesnokov I. 19. Zhumat D. 30. Guerra L. 18. Milovanovic U.
Substitutes
16. Bacanin M. 95. Bopesu J. 22. Brazinskas A. (G) 80. Elivelton 15. Janusevskis J. 8. Kouadio S. 17. Kurtsev O. 25. Lukosevicius I. 12. Valius L. (G) 5. van den Bos M.	3. Asrankulov R. 22. Marochkin A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 56. Musaev E. 5. Ndiaye P. 14. Talal A. 44. Ustimenko D. (G) 57. Zinadin A. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Korkeakunnas T.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Paulauskas V. 🟨,
35', Guerra L. 🟨,
41', Busurmanov S. ↓, Ustimenko D. ↑,
45', 1 - 0, Keita S. ⚽,
45+2', Keita S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zhumat D. ↓, Talal A. ↑,
58', Asamoah K. 🟨,
60', Tagybergen A. (Penalty Awarded),
63', Bizoza P. 🟨,
71', Asamoah K. ↓, Kurtsev O. ↑,
71', Petkevicius N. ↓, Bacanin M. ↑,
71', Paulauskas V. ↓, Kouadio S. ↑,
72', Guerra L. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
77', Balsys D. ↓, Bopesu J. ↑,
84', 1 - 1, Cavnic N. ⚽, Tagybergen A. (A),
86', Milovanovic U. 🟨,
86', Cavnic N. ↓, Ndiaye P. ↑,
88', Asante I. ↓, Janusevskis J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Panevėžys is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Tobol has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Panevėžys may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Tobol is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Panevėžys - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 28.54%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Panevėžys
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
11.07.26	Kauno Žalgiris - Panevėžys	3:0 ✺
04.07.26	Panevėžys - Hegelmann Litauen	1:1 ✺
29.06.26	Panevėžys - Sūduva Marijampolė	1:2 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
23.06.26	Minija Kretinga - Panevėžys	2:1 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.06.26	Panevėžys - FA Šiauliai	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTLLW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
18.07.26	Kyzylzhar - Tobol Kostanay	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Okzhetpes	3:1 ✺
04.07.26	Altai Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Tobol Kostanay - Altai Semey	3:1 ✺
21.06.26	Okzhetpes - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TWLWL

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