Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 32

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Ulenurme stadium (Ulenurme)


	Tartu Kalev		Nõmme United U21

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.75	2.45
	1.94	4.1	2.87
	2.29	3.96	2.48	Watch
	2.13	3.82	2.73
	2.35	3.85	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↓ (2.32)	3.9 ↓ (4)	2.59 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tartu Kalev
41.4%

Draw
23.4%

Nõmme United U21
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

22.7%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

23.3%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tartu Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Nõmme United U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme United U21 than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Tartu Kalev - Nõmme United U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Peramets K. (G) 6. Bazjukin N. 11. Juhanson R. 10. Kaasik K. 21. Kohv K. 66. Mangel M. 8. Mihhalevski R. 27. Neltsas R. 80. Samulin R. 77. Tenno S. (C) 99. Varusk A.	91. Ortega R. (G) 16. Gusarov A. 25. Kabal G. (C) 31. Kaspar A. 45. Leppik R. 58. Medvedev A. 66. Palu R. 32. Piht K. 19. Tiigiste R. 77. Tomingas K. 8. Valge A.
Substitutes
13. Daum M. (G) 5. Laas K. 28. Lehter D. 69. Ulper J. 45. Villems M. 7. Vilt K.	28. Alunurm T. 40. Kranberg R. 10. Krasnov I. 12. MIhelson S. 20. Polda P. (G) 18. Saarnak J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', Tiigiste R. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Tenno S. (Own goal),
40', 0 - 2, Tomingas K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
55', 0 - 3, ⚽,
56', 🟥,
61', 0 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Tartu Kalev has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nõmme United U21 is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Nõmme United U21 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tartu Kalev won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Tartu Kalev won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
04.10.25	Maardu Linnameeskond - Tartu Kalev	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	3:1 ✺
21.09.25	Tartu Kalev - Kuressaare U21	3:1 ✺
18.09.25	Paide U21 - Tartu Kalev	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Tartu Kalev - Narva Trans U21	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWTT
- Nõmme United U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
12.10.25	Nõmme United U21 - Narva Trans U21	3:1 ✺
04.10.25	Nõmme United U21 - Tallinna JK Legion	5:1 ✺
28.09.25	Läänemaa Haapsalu - Nõmme United U21	1:5 ✺
23.09.25	Nõmme United U21 - Paide U21	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Tallinna JK Legion - Nõmme United U21	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
26.07.25	Nõmme United U21 - Tartu Kalev	0:2
17.05.25	Tartu Kalev - Nõmme United U21	1:2
16.03.25	Nõmme United U21 - Tartu Kalev	3:0

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