Match Info

Esiliiga B - Round 28

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Paide linnastaadion (Paide)


	Paide U21		Tartu Kalev

	1	X	2
	5.3	4.95	1.39
	5.04	5.27	1.39
	5.15	4.85	1.43
	3	4.2	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.62 ↑ (2.96)	4.82 ↑ (3.98)	1.5 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paide U21
19.8%

Draw
19%

Tartu Kalev
61.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

22.8%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

22%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paide U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paide U21's form might have worsened.

Tartu Kalev has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tartu Kalev's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide U21 than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paide U21, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tartu Kalev than the current prediction. (-12.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tartu Kalev, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Paide U21 - Tartu Kalev Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide U21 (votes: 1 - 50%). Tartu Kalev (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
70. Isakar R. (G) 26. Luts R. 88. Kool R. 32. Kiik K. 46. Reivik K. (C) 37. Kanne K. 95. Pitsner A. 72. Roos R. 66. Rak C. 39. Murulaid R. 49. Lehtmaa H.	24. Peramets K. (G) 99. Varusk A. 27. Neltsas R. 23. Ruul A. 19. Troon K. 7. Lehter D. 77. Tenno S. (C) 10. Kaasik K. 11. Juhanson R. 8. Mihhalevski R. 21. Kohv K.
Substitutes
71. Kallas K. 41. Ounpuu R. 11. Reinkort S. 73. Trofimov R. 80. Untilov Y. (G) 57. Vassilenko K.	13. Daum M. (G) 52. Karpenkov V. 47. Lille J. 66. Mangel M. 80. Samulin R. 28. Vilt K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
43', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 1 - 1, ⚽,
59', 🟨,
60', 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tartu Kalev may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tartu Kalev might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Paide U21 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 0.7:3).

Including home match between the teams, Paide U21 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paide U21
Estonian Esiliiga B
13.09.25	Paide U21 - Kuressaare U21	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Narva Trans U21 - Paide U21	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Paide U21 - Nõmme United U21	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Maardu Linnameeskond - Paide U21	2:1 ✺
10.08.25	Tallinna JK Legion - Paide U21	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 TWTLL
- Tartu Kalev
Estonian Esiliiga B
13.09.25	Tartu Kalev - Narva Trans U21	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Tartu Kalev	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Tartu Kalev - Jõhvi Phoenix	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Tartu Kalev - Maardu Linnameeskond	0:3 ✺
17.08.25	Kuressaare U21 - Tartu Kalev	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga B
19.07.25	Tartu Kalev - Paide U21	1:0
01.06.25	Paide U21 - Tartu Kalev	2:3
13.04.25	Tartu Kalev - Paide U21	5:0

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