Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA A2 - ROUND 14

Date: 10 March 2024, Sunday


	Taubaté		Comercial SP

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	6.75
	1.36	4.33	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.3	6.93
	1.44	4.04	6.93
	1.42	4.25	7.18
	1.39	4.3	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.55)	4.29 ↑ (3.4)	7.02 ↑ (6.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Taubaté
65.4%

Draw
21.5%

Comercial SP
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

26.7%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Taubaté has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Taubaté's performance.

Comercial SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Taubaté than the current prediction. (-21.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Taubaté that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Comercial SP could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A3).

Comercial SP is Relegated to Paulista A3

Taubaté is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Comercial SP has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Comercial SP could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Taubaté is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Taubaté won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Taubaté
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
06.03.24	Ferroviária - Taubaté	0:0 ✺
02.03.24	Taubaté - Velo Clube	0:2 ✺
25.02.24	CA Juventus - Taubaté	2:0 ✺
21.02.24	Taubaté - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
17.02.24	Rio Claro - Taubaté	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLLTL
- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
07.03.24	Comercial SP - CA Juventus	1:2 ✺
03.03.24	Comercial SP - Piracicaba	1:4 ✺
24.02.24	Portuguesa Santista - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
21.02.24	Comercial SP - Osasco Sporting	1:1 ✺
17.02.24	São José-SP - Comercial SP	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
04.02.23	Comercial SP - Taubaté	0:1

Taubaté - Comercial SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide