Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Martins Pereira (Sao Jose dos Campos)


	São José-SP		Comercial SP

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.60	5.75
	1.5	3.55	5.7
	1.53	3.4	6.14
	1.53	3.65	6.2
	1.51	3.35	6.05
	1.62	3.64	5.72	Watch
	1.53	3.5	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.67)	3.53 ↑ (3.5)	5.88 ↑ (4.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

São José-SP
58.9%

Draw
25.7%

Comercial SP
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

26.2%

18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

25.5%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São José-SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Comercial SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São José-SP than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (+3%)

São José SP - Comercial SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Joao Lucas (G) 28. Carlos Henrique 34. Guilherme S. 11. Jeffinho 4. Joao Ramos 8. Mauricio 27. Natan Masiero 9. Neto Oliveira 7. Thomaz 10. Vitinho 3. Wesley Rodrigues (C)	22. Lee (C) 6. Balbino 8. Couto L. 4. Cristopher 5. Felipe M. 10. Filipinho 7. Gustavo Henrique 2. Luis Fernando 9. Matheus Arcanjo 3. Paim 11. Robinho
Substitutes
17. Fernando Neto 14. Gabriel Ramos 32. Guilherme (G) 6. Iury 5. Jeferson Lima 19. Joao G. 20. Lucas Andre 16. Martineli 33. Micael 29. Otavio 1. Rafael Puridade (G) 18. Tche Tche	15. Antonio 25. Carlos M. 18. Coutinho 19. Danilo 20. Edgar 17. Giovanny 13. Lucao 1. Pelegrine 16. Raphael 23. Ricardo 27. Vitor P. 14. Vytor

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 🟨,
7', 1 - 0, Wesley Rodrigues ⚽,
35', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 🟨,
56', 🟨,
67', 2 - 0, Neto Oliveira ⚽,
87', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-0.

In recent outings, São José-SP has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Comercial SP is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Comercial SP may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

São José-SP carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, São José-SP has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:2 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for São José-SP against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São José-SP
Brazilian Copa Paulista
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	São José-SP - São Caetano	0:0 ✺
15.08.26	EC São Bernardo - São José-SP	2:3 ✺
02.08.26	Santo André - São José-SP	1:0 ✺
25.07.26	São José-SP - EC São Bernardo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWLW
- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Copa Paulista
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	EC São Bernardo - Comercial SP	2:1 penalties ✺
31.08.26	Comercial SP - EC São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	EC Noroeste - Comercial SP	4:3 ✺
18.08.26	Comercial SP - Piracicaba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
13.09.26	Comercial SP - São José-SP	0:0
13.09.25	São José-SP - Comercial SP	0:1
07.09.25	Comercial SP - São José-SP	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
17.02.24	São José-SP - Comercial SP	4:0

São José-SP - Comercial SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide