Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 4

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López (Santa Cruz de Tenerife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Tenerife		Ourense CF

	1	X	2
	1.33	4	8.5
	1.32	4.55	8.6
	1.32	4.9	9.6
	1.41	4.13	8.00	Watch
	1.35	4.33	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.58)	4.38 ↑ (3.45)	8.74 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tenerife
68.4%

Draw
21%

Ourense CF
10.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

26.3%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

25%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tenerife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tenerife's performance.

Ourense CF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ourense CF might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tenerife than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tenerife that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ourense CF than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Tenerife - Ourense CF Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martin D. (G) 2. Rodriguez D. 22. Gonzalez A. 12. Landazuri A. 3. Zoilo A. 20. Manjam A. 16. Sanz A. (C) 6. Juanjo 10. Gil N. 9. de Miguel J. 18. Enric	1. Raton A. (G) 2. Coto E. 5. Prado M. 14. Perez A. 12. Jelbat A. 3. Sanz H. (C) 21. Guerrero A. 16. Munoz D. 8. Ramos J. 17. Ouhdadi O. 7. Bouzaig A.
Substitutes
19. Alvarez C. 5. Calavera J. 15. Fabricio 29. Fernandez D. 23. Jorge J. 4. Leon J. 14. Lopez N. 13. Lozano de Vuyst G. (G) 11. Mesa M. 7. Montes C. 8. Perez J. 28. Sabina F.	11. Aranzabe A. 10. Camus M. 6. Castillo N. 19. Garcia D. 24. Moreno C. 23. Punzano I. 13. Sanchez Vivas A. (G) 9. Vazquez K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, de Miguel J. ⚽,
36', 🟨,
45+4', Landazuri A. 🟨,
45+6', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sanz A. ↓, Calavera J. ↑,
51', 🟨,
63', 2 - 0, Enric ⚽,
65', Munoz D. ↓, Camus M. ↑,
65', Guerrero A. ↓, Moreno C. ↑,
67', 🟨,
69', Manjam A. ↓, Leon J. ↑,
69', Landazuri A. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
75', Perez A. ↓, Vazquez K. ↑,
75', Ramos J. ↓, Castillo N. ↑,
77', de Miguel J. 🟨,
79', Enric ↓, Mesa M. ↑,
85', Ouhdadi O. ↓, Punzano I. ↑,
88', Gil N. ↓, Lopez N. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 0, Mesa M. (Pen),

Preview

Tenerife has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ourense CF has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tenerife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tenerife is the undisputed favorite.

We predict that Tenerife will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tenerife
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Pontevedra - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Tenerife - Mérida AD	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Tenerife	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.25	Marino - Tenerife	0:5 ✺
02.08.25	Tenerife - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWWWT
- Ourense CF
Spanish Copa Federacion
17.09.25	Ourense CF - Zamora	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
14.09.25	Ourense CF - Talavera de la Reina	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Laredo - Ourense CF	1:5 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.09.25	Osasuna B - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Ourense CF - Athletic Bilbao B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLWTT

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