Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 13 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Park Hall (Oswestry)

Referee: Bastien B. (Fra)


	The New Saints		Petrocub-Hîncești

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.1	3.4	3.4	Watch
	2.13	3.38	3.5
	2.06	3.52	3.38	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.25
	2.11	3.5	3.45	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.64)	3.43 ↑ (3.24)	3.41 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

The New Saints
45.2%

Draw
27.4%

Petrocub-Hîncești
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

28.9%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

29.6%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The New Saints has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in The New Saints's performance.

Petrocub-Hîncești has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Petrocub-Hîncești might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for The New Saints than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with The New Saints that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Petrocub-Hîncești than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Petrocub-Hîncești could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

The New Saints - Petrocub Hîncești Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. TNS will win (votes: 7 - 50%). Petrocub will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for TNS: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Roberts C. (G) 7. Daniels J. 22. Davies D. 6. Bodenham J. 3. Marshall J. 21. Smith L. 10. Redmond D. (C) 19. Clark B. 17. Williams J. 23. Young B. 18. Holden R.	1. Smalenea S. (G) 66. Bors I. 4. Mudrac V. 11. Platica S. 90. Jardan I. 94. Cotogoi C. 20. Douanla D. M. 37. Puscas D. 9. Ambros V. (C) 19. Platica M. 8. Demian D.
Substitutes
24. Baker A. 20. Bradley S. 27. Canavan J. 11. Cieslewicz A. 30. Edwards J. (G) 12. Hudson B. 16. McGahey H. 9. McManus D. 2. Pask J. 13. Ramsey A. (G) 14. Williams D. 31. Woollam B.	55. Agyemang M. N. 22. Caruntu M. 78. Clescenco N. 32. Covali D. (G) 6. Diallo B. 31. Dodon V. (G) 97. Iosipoi M. 30. Jardan V. 39. Lungu T. 23. Lupan M. 93. Sandu C.
Coaches
Harrison C.	Martin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Bors I. 🟨,
18', Puscas D. 🟨,
25', Platica M. 🟨,
40', Williams J. 🟥,
45+2', Puscas D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Demian D. ↓, Lungu T. ↑,
59', Cotogoi C. ↓, Diallo B. ↑,
62', Clark B. ↓, Baker A. ↑,
62', Holden R. ↓, Cieslewicz A. ↑,
67', Douanla D. M. ↓, Jardan V. ↑,
71', Marshall J. ↓, McManus D. ↑,
75', Ambros V. ↓, Caruntu M. ↑,
81', Smalenea S. 🟨,
89', Jardan I. 🟨,
90+4', Davies D. 🟨,
90+5', Redmond D. ↓, Williams D. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-1.

TNS is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Petrocub is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Petrocub could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

TNS will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches TNS won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- The New Saints
UEFA Europa League
06.08.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - The New Saints	1:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
02.08.24	The New Saints - Flint Town United	5:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.24	The New Saints - Ferencvárosi	1:2 ✺
23.07.24	Ferencvárosi - The New Saints	5:0 ✺
16.07.24	Dečić Tuzi - The New Saints	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LWLLT
- Petrocub-Hîncești
Moldovan Super Liga
09.08.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - Florești	Floresti awarded ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - The New Saints	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.07.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - APOEL	1:1 ✺
23.07.24	APOEL - Petrocub-Hîncești	1:0 ✺
17.07.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - Ordabasy	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 ?WTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
06.08.24	Petrocub-Hîncești - The New Saints	1:0

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