Match Info

J3 League - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Shoda Shoyu Stadium Gunma (Maebashi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Thespakusatsu Gunma		Kochi United

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.25	3.30
	1.86	3.30	3.60	Watch
	2.11	3.30	3.50
	2.24	3.39	3.04	Watch
	2.08	3.10	3.45
	2.03	3.54	3.39	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.2)	3.3 ↑ (3.1)	3.35 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thespakusatsu Gunma
44.8%

Draw
27.8%

Kochi United
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

28.8%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

26.7%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thespakusatsu Gunma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Kochi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thespakusatsu Gunma than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Thespakusatsu Gunma that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kochi United than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kochi United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kochi United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
78. Okada S. (G) 16. Yamahara K. 3. Ohata R. 2. Nakamura R. 22. Nuki M. 8. Kamigaki R. 27. Fujimura R. 19. Farzan Sana M. 17. Hyakuda M. 20. Shimokawa T. 18. Tanaka S.	99. Murata Y. (G) 16. Kozuki S. 4. Kobayashi D. 22. Fujimori R. 88. Hama T. 8. Takano Y. 14. Sekino G. 44. Shimoda Y. 7. Kanehara A. 28. Nanamure A. 73. Tanaka T.
Substitutes
69. Izuma S. 15. Kazama K. 13. Kondo I. (G) 77. Kotake S. 30. Koyanagi T. 99. Nakashima T. 28. Nodake J. 52. Soma J. 4. Tamashiro T.	26. Asano K. 33. Cho H. 17. Inose K. (G) 13. Kawata A. 23. Matsumoto D. 19. Origbaajo I. 10. Sasaki T. 77. Sato J. 5. Tadokoro R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Farzan Sana M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Shimokawa T. ↓, Nakashima T. ↑,
64', Fujimura R. ↓, Tamashiro T. ↑,
64', Hyakuda M. ↓, Kazama K. ↑,
70', 1 - 0, Nakamura R. ⚽, Kazama K. (A),
71', Nanamure A. ↓, Kawata A. ↑,
75', Kanehara A. ↓, Cho H. ↑,
75', Tanaka T. ↓, Sato J. ↑,
82', Farzan Sana M. ↓, Kotake S. ↑,
82', Nakamura R. ↓, Koyanagi T. ↑,
83', Sekino G. ↓, Sasaki T. ↑,
83', Shimoda Y. ↓, Origbaajo I. ↑,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 20th in the Relegation and 16th).

Thespakusatsu is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Kochi United has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Kochi United may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Thespakusatsu holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Thespakusatsu has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:2 (averaging 1.5:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Thespakusatsu against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Kusatsu	9	2	0	7	8:18	-10	6
20	Kochi United	9	1	2	6	3:20	-17	5

Last Results with these Odds

Kochi United - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 30.73%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thespakusatsu Gunma
Japan J3 League
12.09.26	Renofa Yamaguchi - Thespakusatsu Gunma	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Fukushima United	1:3 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Albirex Niigata	1:2 ✺
Japan J3 League
30.08.26	Nagano Parceiro - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Tokyo Verdy - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLWL
- Kochi United
Japan J3 League
13.09.26	Kochi United - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Kochi United - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
Japan J3 League
05.09.26	Tochigi - Kochi United	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Kochi United - Roasso Kumamoto	0:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
19.08.26	Verspah Oita - Kochi United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
29.11.25	Kochi United - Thespakusatsu Gunma	0:1
17.05.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Kochi United	2:2

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