Match Info

Besta deild karla - Relegation Group - Round 4

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Thorsvollur (Akureyri) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Iceland	14:00	SÝN Sport Ísland 3
International	14:00	OneFootball TV


	Thor Akureyri		Stjarnan

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.80	3.70	2.10
	2.60	3.80	2.12	Watch
	3.01	3.92	2.18
	2.55	4.02	2.43	Watch
	2.95	3.80	2.15
	2.92	3.86	2.14
	2.80	3.80	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (3.29)	3.84 ↓ (4.23)	2.19 ↑ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thor Akureyri
33.2%

Draw
24.2%

Stjarnan
42.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.7%

22.3%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

22.5%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thor Akureyri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Stjarnan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stjarnan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thor Akureyri than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stjarnan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stefansson A. (C) 18. Ingason S. 6. Gudbrandsson G. 2. Arnarsson A. 15. Kristjansson K. 23. Vazquez K. 35. Ingolfsson T. 8. Halldorsson E. 16. Brynjolfsson B. 22. Hlynsson A. 25. Jakobsen C.	12. Olafsson A. (G) 14. Hauksson B. 24. Jonsson S. 3. Kjeldsen G. 19. Leifsson A. 18. Nokkvason G. 8. Gunnarsson J. 7. Eggertsson O. 29. Hauksson A. 11. Ingason B. 22. Atlason E. (C)
Substitutes
5. Affi Y. 27. Brynjarsson H. 17. Gislason F. 30. Helgason P. 28. Lalic F. (G) 10. Magnusson A. 19. Ragnarsson R. 4. Runarsson H. 7. Sigurjonsson A.	25. Alexandersson C. 1. Bergmann Gylfason D. (G) 99. Bjarnason A. 36. Bjornsson A. 37. Bjornsson B. 6. Ingimarsson S. T. 28. Saemundsson B. 21. Turay I. 94. Vilhjalmsson A.
Coaches
Hoskuldsson S.	Hauksson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Eggertsson O. ⚽, Atlason E. (A),
10', Jonsson S. 🟨,
11', 1 - 1, Arnarsson A. ⚽,
19', 2 - 1, Ingason S. ⚽, Brynjolfsson B. (A),
33', Vazquez K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Kjeldsen G. 🟨,
58', 3 - 1, Ingolfsson T. ⚽, Halldorsson E. (A),
62', Kjeldsen G. ↓, Alexandersson C. ↑,
62', Hauksson B. ↓, Bjarnason A. ↑,
64', Atlason E. ↓, Vilhjalmsson A. ↑,
65', Hauksson A. 🟨,
72', Leifsson A. 🟨,
76', Gunnarsson J. ↓, Saemundsson B. ↑,
77', Leifsson A. ↓, Bjornsson A. ↑,
79', Brynjolfsson B. ↓, Ragnarsson R. ↑,
88', Halldorsson E. ↓, Gislason F. ↑,
90+3', Bjornsson A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thor won 1.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Thor has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:22 (averaging 1.3:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Thor against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 9:13 goals (averaging 1.3:1.9 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thor Akureyri
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
10.10.26	Thor Akureyri - ÍBV Vestmannaeyar	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	KA Akureyri - Thor Akureyri	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Valur - Thor Akureyri	4:1 ✺
06.09.26	Thor Akureyri - FH Hafnarfjordur	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	ÍBV Vestmannaeyar - Thor Akureyri	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLLWW
- UMF Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
10.10.26	Stjarnan - KA Akureyri	0:3 ✺
20.09.26	FH Hafnarfjordur - Stjarnan	5:2 ✺
13.09.26	Stjarnan - ÍBV Vestmannaeyar	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Stjarnan - ÍBV Vestmannaeyar	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Breiðablik - Stjarnan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Icelandic Besta-deild karla
23.08.26	Stjarnan - Thor Akureyri	4:2
31.05.26	Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan	1:3
Icelandic Cup
12.06.24	Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan	0:1
Icelandic League Cup
19.02.22	Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan	1:1
09.03.19	Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan	2:1
Icelandic Cup
25.06.18	Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan	1:2 ET
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
11.08.14	Stjarnan - Thor Akureyri	2:1

Thor Akureyri - Stjarnan