Match Info

J2 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: City Football Station (Tochigi) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	13:00	K-Ball
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Tochigi City		Yokohama FC

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.5	2.01
	3.00	3.40	2.00
	3.15	3.45	2.02	Watch
	3.26	3.94	2.12
	3.19	3.83	2.04	Watch
	3.15	3.85	2
	3	3.6	2.02	Watch
	3.2	3.6	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (3.01)	3.65 ↑ (3.63)	2.03 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tochigi City
29.3%

Draw
25.3%

Yokohama FC
45.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.4%

25.2%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.3%

24.3%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tochigi City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Yokohama FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

The ML Model estimate for Tochigi City aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yokohama FC than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Tochigi City - Yokohama FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Harada Y. (G) 5. Okui R. (C) 2. Jonjic M. 3. Teruyama H. 33. Inui T. 20. Pedro Augusto 7. Mori T. 24. Nishiya K. 23. Yoshida A. 32. Koike Y. 93. Nguen T.	21. Ichikawa A. (G) 22. Iwatake K. (C) 19. Sugita H. 5. Hosoi K. 20. Murata T. 7. Yamada K. 77. Takae L. 48. Shimbo K. 18. Shimamura T. 10. Joao Paulo 9. Lukian
Substitutes
17. Chinen T. 99. Hiraoka M. 6. Kato Jo 18. Kato M. 16. Kodama J. (G) 88. Masukake Y. 10. Okaniwa Y. 11. Vasquez B. 8. Yamashita K.	90. Adailton 15. Hayashi K. 42. Ishii R. (G) 16. Ito M. 78. Iwasaki R. 49. Komazawa N. 13. Kubota R. 4. Ogura H. 35. Uda K.
Coaches
Imaya N.	Sudo D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Joao Paulo 🟨,
10', 0 - 1, Takae L. ⚽, Shimamura T. (A),
16', Shimbo K. 🟥,
22', Joao Paulo ↓, Iwasaki R. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Pedro Augusto 🟨,
54', Murata T. 🟨,
56', Takae L. 🟨,
58', Pedro Augusto ↓, Okaniwa Y. ↑,
66', Koike Y. ↓, Vasquez B. ↑,
66', Okui R. ↓, Masukake Y. ↑,
69', Takae L. ↓, Ogura H. ↑,
72', Inui T. 🟨,
77', Mori T. ↓, Yamashita K. ↑,
77', Yoshida A. ↓, Hiraoka M. ↑,
80', Hiraoka M. 🟨,
85', Murata T. ↓, Ito M. ↑,
85', Lukian ↓, Komazawa N. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Hiraoka M. ⚽,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 16th and 5th in the Promotion - J2 League (Promotion: )).

Tochigi City has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Yokohama FC has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Tochigi City could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Yokohama FC holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Yokohama FC in today's match, at odds of 2.06.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Tochigi City has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:8 (averaging 1.5:4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tochigi City against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:3 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Yokohama FC	13	6	4	3	25:16	9	22
18	Tochigi City	13	3	3	7	20:22	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Yokohama FC - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 44.39%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tochigi City FC
Japan J2 League
10.10.26	Ventforet Kofu - Tochigi City	2:1 ✺
03.10.26	Tochigi City - Imabari	1:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Tochigi City - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
26.09.26	Tokushima Vortis - Tochigi City	3:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Machida Zelvia - Tochigi City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Yokohama FC
Japan J League Cup
14.10.26	Yokohama FC - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:4 ✺
Japan J2 League
10.10.26	Yokohama FC - Oita Trinita	1:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Yokohama FC	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
04.10.26	Vanraure Hachinohe - Yokohama FC	0:2 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Gifu - Yokohama FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 J3 League
06.05.26	Tochigi City - Yokohama FC	2:3 penalties
22.02.26	Yokohama FC - Tochigi City	5:1

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