Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 5 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	Tona		Lleida

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.05	3.8
	1.92	3.11	4.09
	1.93	3.12	4.02
	1.91	3	3.8
	1.97	3.31	3.88
	1.9	3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.78)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	3.97 ↓ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tona
47.5%

Draw
29.5%

Lleida
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

28.5%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

27.2%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Lleida has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tona than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tona, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lleida than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Tona - Lleida Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Roquet M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', 1 - 1, Russo P. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Tona is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tona won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	UE Tona	5	1	0	4	4:9	-5	3

Last Results with these Odds

Tona - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 50.41%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UE Tona
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
18.01.26	Vilanova - Tona	0:1 ✺
10.01.26	LEscala - Tona	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Tona - Vilassar de Mar	2:0 ✺
21.12.25	Mollerussa - Tona	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Tona - San Cristóbal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTWLT
- Lleida
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
18.01.26	Lleida - Can Vidalet	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Vilassar de Mar - Lleida	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Vilanova - Lleida	3:1 ✺
14.12.25	Lleida - Mollerussa	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	San Cristóbal - Lleida	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
14.09.25	Lleida - Tona	0:2

Tona - Lleida: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide