Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 5 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Tona		Vilassar de Mar

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.5	2.8
	2.08	3.35	3
	1.99	3.64	3.24
	2	3.4	3.1
	2.02	3.4	3.21
	2	3.33	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.05)	3.44 ↑ (3.41)	3.11 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tona
44.6%

Draw
26.3%

Vilassar de Mar
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

26.7%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

27.2%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Vilassar de Mar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tona than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilassar de Mar than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Tona - Vilassar de Mar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 1 - 0, Roquet M. ⚽,
87', 2 - 0, Martinez J. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11 and 13).

Tona is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Vilassar de Mar has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tona may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tona is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tona won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Tona won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	UE Tona	5	1	0	4	4:9	-5	3
18	Vilassar de Mar	5	1	0	4	3:13	-10	3

Last Results with these Odds

Tona - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 44.3%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UE Tona
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
21.12.25	Mollerussa - Tona	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Tona - San Cristóbal	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Cornellà - Tona	4:1 ✺
23.11.25	Tona - Badalona	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Montañesa - Tona	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LTLTL
- UE Vilassar de Mar
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
14.12.25	Vilanova - Vilassar de Mar	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Vilassar de Mar - LEscala	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Vilassar de Mar - Can Vidalet	2:1 ✺
16.11.25	Mollerussa - Vilassar de Mar	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Vilassar de Mar - San Cristóbal	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 5
16.03.25	Tona - Vilassar de Mar	2:0
03.11.24	Vilassar de Mar - Tona	0:3
21.01.24	Tona - Vilassar de Mar	1:1
22.01.23	Vilassar de Mar - Tona	2:2

Tona - Vilassar de Mar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide