Match Info

National League South - Round 25

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Tonbridge Angels		Dorking Wanderers

	1	X	2
	3.85	3.8	1.75
	3.89	4.55	1.69	Watch
	3.8	3.6	1.75
	3.98	3.88	1.78
	3.6	4	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (3.99)	3.97 ↑ (3.88)	1.75 ↓ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonbridge Angels
24.1%

Draw
23.2%

Dorking Wanderers
52.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

23.3%

23.9%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

23.5%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonbridge Angels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Dorking Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorking Wanderers than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Casey P. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Akehurst B. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
68', 1 - 2, McShane J. ⚽,
74', 2 - 2, Leahy T. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 18 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 3.

Tonbridge is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Dorking has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Dorking is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:19. (average 1.3:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tonbridge won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 1.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Tonbridge	14	7	3	4	26:14	12	24
9	Dorking	13	5	6	2	29:21	8	21

Outrights of English National League South for now

Tonbridge: 3.56%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
30.12.25	Tonbridge Angels - Eastbourne Borough	3:4 ✺
26.12.25	Ebbsfleet United - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tonbridge Angels - Dagenham & Redbridge	2:2 ✺
06.12.25	Torquay United - Tonbridge Angels	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 LLTWL
- Dorking Wanderers
English National League South
30.12.25	Worthing - Dorking Wanderers	3:2 ✺
26.12.25	Dorking Wanderers - Horsham	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	Slough Town - Dorking Wanderers	1:2 ✺
16.12.25	Dorking Wanderers - Weston-super-Mare	3:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.12.25	Dorking Wanderers - Bath City	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
25.08.25	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	4:1
11.02.25	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	1:0
22.10.24	Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers	1:0
05.02.22	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	1:3
25.09.21	Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers	3:1
14.11.20	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	4:1
10.08.19	Dorking Wanderers - Tonbridge Angels	3:1

Tonbridge Angels - Dorking Wanderers