Match Info

National League South - Round 20

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday


	Tonbridge Angels		Hemel Hempstead Town

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.08
	3.67	3.42	2
	3.25	3.39	2.11	Watch
	3.39	3.18	2.04
	3.6	3.33	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.25)	3.3 ↓ (3.39)	2.04 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonbridge Angels
26.7%

Draw
28%

Hemel Hempstead Town
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.6%

27.4%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

27.1%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonbridge Angels has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Leahy T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
54', 1 - 1, Wilkinson F. ⚽,
58', 1 - 2, Matthews Lewis M. ⚽,
69', 🟥,
81', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 16 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 1.

Recent form of Tonbridge has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hemel Hempstead is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Hemel Hempstead has had a series of home games.

Hemel Hempstead will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 12:19. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tonbridge won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Tonbridge Angels - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.58%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
25.11.25	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Tonbridge Angels	0:3 ✺
22.11.25	Chippenham Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Worthing	0:4 ✺
English National League South
11.11.25	Bath City - Tonbridge Angels	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLTL
- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
25.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 penalties ✺
English National League South
08.11.25	Worthing - Hemel Hempstead Town	4:0 ✺
04.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Weston-super-Mare	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
01.03.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	2:0
23.11.24	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:0
13.01.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	2:0
07.10.23	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	3:3
07.04.23	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:1
27.09.22	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	1:0
26.03.22	Hemel Hempstead Town - Tonbridge Angels	4:3

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