Match Info

National League South - Round 4

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday


	Tonbridge Angels		Truro City

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.10	2.45
	2.65	3.2	2.45
	2.57	3.37	2.55
	2.6	3.42	2.55	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.5
	2.5	3.32	2.45
	2.55	3.15	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↓ (2.93)	3.26 ↓ (3.47)	2.49 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tonbridge Angels
35.6%

Draw
27.9%

Truro City
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

26.8%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

25.9%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tonbridge Angels has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Truro City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tonbridge Angels than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Truro City than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Truro City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tonbridge Angels - Truro City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
53', 0 - 1, Harvey T. (Penalty Awarded),
74', 0 - 2, Harvey T. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tonbridge may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tonbridge has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Tonbridge won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tonbridge won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Truro: 6.51% Tonbridge: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Truro	10	5	3	2	15:7	8	18
10	Tonbridge	10	4	2	4	19:11	8	14

Last Results with these Odds

Tonbridge Angels - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.72%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tonbridge Angels
English National League South
18.08.26	Dover Athletic - Tonbridge Angels	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Tonbridge Angels - Torquay United	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Tonbridge Angels - Eastbourne Borough	4:2 ✺
21.07.26	Tonbridge Angels - Sittingbourne	2:2 ✺
14.07.26	Tonbridge Angels - Sutton United	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWTL
- Truro City
English National League Cup
18.08.26	Truro City - Southampton U21	2:1 ✺
English National League South
15.08.26	Chelmsford City - Truro City	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Truro City - Maidenhead United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Taunton Town - Truro City	Canceled ✺
25.07.26	Truro City - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WTW?L

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
15.02.25	Tonbridge Angels - Truro City	0:1
26.10.24	Truro City - Tonbridge Angels	2:1
23.03.24	Tonbridge Angels - Truro City	2:1
28.10.23	Truro City - Tonbridge Angels	1:2
27.04.13	Tonbridge Angels - Truro City	3:2
17.03.12	Tonbridge Angels - Truro City	N/A

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