Match Info

Campeonato Nacional U19 - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Tondela U19		Leiria U19

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.8	2.68
	2.7	3.91	2
	2.23	3.32	2.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (4.58)	3.68 ↓ (3.9)	2.51 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela U19
38.9%

Draw
24.8%

Leiria U19
36.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

19.8%

23.2%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

22.5%

58.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela U19 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tondela U19's performance.

Leiria U19 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Leiria U19 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela U19 than the current prediction. (-19.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tondela U19 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria U19 than the current prediction. (+22.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leiria U19 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tondela U19 - Leiria U19 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela U19 (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Tondela U19 (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tondela U19 (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 1 - 0, ⚽,
61', 2 - 0, ⚽,
86', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 in the zone Campeonato Nacional U19 (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato Nacional U19 (Championship Group: )).

Tondela U19 has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leiria U19 is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Tondela U19 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tondela U19 has had a series of away games.

Leiria U19 might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Leiria U19 will win today's game, with odds of 2.05.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tondela U19 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tondela U19
Portuguese Campeonato Nacional U19
18.10.25	Académico de Viseu U19 - Tondela U19	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Benfica U19 - Tondela U19	4:0 ✺
27.09.25	Tondela U19 - Santa Clara U19	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Torreense U19 - Tondela U19	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Sporting Lisbon U19 - Tondela U19	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Leiria U19
Portuguese Campeonato Nacional U19
19.10.25	Leiria U19 - Sporting Lisbon U19	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Santa Clara U19 - Leiria U19	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Leiria U19 - Alverca U19	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Mafra U19 - Leiria U19	3:3 ✺
20.09.25	Leiria U19 - Belenenses U19	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Campeonato Nacional U19
15.08.25	Leiria U19 - Tondela U19	1:1

Tondela U19 - Leiria U19