Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Vernice M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
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Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Ligue 1+
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Laola1
Iran	Persiana Sports 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One
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Norway	Viaplay
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Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 1, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Toulouse		Lille

	1	X	2
	3.60	3.50	2.05	Watch
	3.50	3.40	2.10
	4.10	3.55	1.83	Watch
	3.89	3.50	2.11
	3.9	3.46	1.97	Watch
	3.85	3.40	2.06
	3.90	3.57	2.02	Watch
	3.75	3.50	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↑ (3.11)	3.49 ↑ (3.34)	2.03 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
25.2%

Draw
27.5%

Lille
47.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.6%

28.5%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

27.8%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulouse's form might have worsened.

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lille's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lille, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	17.9%	82.1%

Toulouse - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 46 - 82.1%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 72.1% – 92.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Lille (2.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - under (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Lille (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Toulouse (2.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 1 - 10%). Lille (votes: 9 - 90%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Restes G. (G) 22. Messali R. 3. McKenzie M. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 12. Tape C. 23. Casseres C. 6. Vossah A. 9. Hidalgo S. 8. Jorgensen T. 37. Azizi I. 13. Russell-Rowe J.	1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 3. Ngoy N. 4. Alexsandro 24. Verdonk C. 21. Andre B. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 8. Mbappe E. 10. Haraldsson H. 11. Sahraoui O. 9. Giroud O.
Substitutes
18. Amougou M. 94. Diallo I. 5. Koumbassa S. 60. Niflore M. (G) 11. Oppong S. 31. Schmidt N. 14. Sigur N. 20. Tengstedt C. 7. Vignolo J.	7. Bakwa D. 26. Cossier I. 12. Gill O. (G) 14. Kjaergaard M. 17. Mukau N. 19. Onal B. 15. Perraud R. 28. Perrin G. 18. Ueda A.
Coaches
Askou J.	Ancelotti D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Hidalgo S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sahraoui O. ↓, Bakwa D. ↑,
46', Verdonk C. ↓, Perraud R. ↑,
57', Hidalgo S. ↓, Vignolo J. ↑,
57', Giroud O. ↓, Ueda A. ↑,
57', Mbappe E. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
65', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Tengstedt C. ↑,
66', Messali R. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,
71', Bentaleb N. ↓, Onal B. ↑,
71', Restes G. ↓, Niflore M. ↑,
72', Vossah A. ↓, Schmidt N. ↑,
73', 0 - 1, Ueda A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

Toulouse has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lille is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lille will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 21:34. (average 1.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.3:1.7).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.84% Toulouse: 0.43%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7:9	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Lille - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 40.89%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Toulouse - Lyon	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Toulouse - Hamburger SV	1:2 ✺
05.08.26	Al Ain - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
31.07.26	Toulouse - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLLWW
- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
28.08.26	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Angers - Lille	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Everton - Lille	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Lille	3:6 ✺
18.07.26	Lille - RAAL La Louvière	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
12.04.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:4
14.09.25	Lille - Toulouse	2:1
12.04.25	Toulouse - Lille	1:2
05.10.24	Lille - Toulouse	2:1
25.02.24	Toulouse - Lille	3:1
12.11.23	Lille - Toulouse	1:1
18.03.23	Toulouse - Lille	0:2

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