Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 6

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Louis II (Monaco)

Referee: Buquet R. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 5 Max
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US Espanol, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
World	OneFootball TV


	Monaco		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.10	5.25	Watch
	1.63	4.20	4.75
	1.58	4.10	5.20	Watch
	1.69	4.40	5.17
	1.65	4.29	4.7	Watch
	1.65	4.10	5.10
	1.63	4.15	5.31	Watch
	1.61	4.50	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.68)	4.23 ↑ (4.04)	5.09 ↑ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monaco
58.6%

Draw
22.6%

Toulouse
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.3%

23.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

22.5%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.2%	7.8%	2%

Monaco - Toulouse Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Monaco (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Monaco will win (46 of 51 users predict this - 90.2%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.04% – 98.36%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Monaco will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Monaco (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hradecky L. (G) 2. Vanderson 72. Sane S. 15. Dier E. 20. Nazinho 8. Camara L. 6. Zakaria D. (C) 37. Diop E. 10. Golovin A. 7. Detourbet M. 11. Abline M.	16. Restes G. (G) 22. Messali R. 5. Koumbassa S. 3. McKenzie M. 12. Tape C. 23. Casseres C. (C) 6. Vossah A. 8. Jorgensen T. 20. Tengstedt C. 37. Azizi I. 13. Russell-Rowe J.
Substitutes
9. Balogun F. 47. Benzahra S. 31. Fati A. 17. Idumbo S. 16. Kohn P. (G) 13. Mawissa C. 22. Salisu M. 46. Soubeir A. 4. Teze J.	18. Amougou M. 94. Diallo I. 15. Donnum A. 9. Hidalgo S. 60. Niflore M. (G) 19. Odogu D. 11. Oppong S. 31. Schmidt N. 14. Sigur N.
Coaches
Filipe Luis	Askou J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Diop E. ⚽, Golovin A. (A),
38', 2 - 0, Abline M. ⚽, Diop E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Russell-Rowe J. ↓, Oppong S. ↑,
47', Nazinho 🟨,
48', 2 - 1, Tengstedt C. (Penalty Awarded),
51', Zakaria D. ↓, Benzahra S. ↑,
54', Golovin A. 🟨,
58', Detourbet M. ↓, Balogun F. ↑,
58', Diop E. ↓, Idumbo S. ↑,
59', 2 - 2, Oppong S. ⚽, Tengstedt C. (A),
70', Casseres C. 🟨,
71', Azizi I. ↓, Sigur N. ↑,
75', Vanderson ↓, Teze J. ↑,
75', Abline M. ↓, Fati A. ↑,
77', Messali R. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,
84', Tengstedt C. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
84', Vossah A. ↓, Donnum A. ↑,
90+3', Oppong S. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 1st in the Promotion - Champions League League phase and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monaco won 2.

Monaco is currently on a high with consecutive positive results (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Toulouse have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this matchup, Monaco is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Monaco in today's match, at odds of 1.6.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Monaco has recorded 12 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 38:22 (averaging 1.9:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Monaco against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 21:9 goals (averaging 2.1:0.9 per game).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Monaco: 7.62% Toulouse: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	10:5	5	14
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	9:11	-2	6

Last Results with these Odds

Toulouse - the odds 4.65 are the expected chance of winning is 20.33%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Monaco
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Monaco - Pisa	2:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
18.09.26	Monaco - Lens	2:1 ✺
12.09.26	Strasbourg - Monaco	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.3 WWTWW
- Toulouse FC
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Toulouse - Pau	2:3
French Ligue 1
19.09.26	Toulouse - Le Havre	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Lorient - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
03.09.26	Toulouse - Lille	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
25.04.26	Toulouse - Monaco	2:2
25.10.25	Monaco - Toulouse	1:0
07.03.25	Toulouse - Monaco	1:1
07.12.24	Monaco - Toulouse	2:0
18.02.24	Monaco - Toulouse	1:2
20.12.23	Toulouse - Monaco	1:2
03.06.23	Monaco - Toulouse	1:2

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