Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday


	Tre Penne		La Fiorita

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.05	2.88	Watch
	2.36	2.98	3.02
	2.39	2.97	3.02	Watch
	2.31	3.02	2.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.45)	3.01 ↓ (3.3)	2.97 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tre Penne
39%

Draw
30.3%

La Fiorita
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

27.7%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

27.6%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tre Penne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

La Fiorita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tre Penne than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Fiorita than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Tre Penne - La Fiorita Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Tre Penne will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
24', 0 - 1, Grandoni A. ⚽, Dormi L. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tre Penne won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tre Penne won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:25. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tre Penne won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.4:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Tre Penne	4	4	0	0	9:2	7	12
7	La Fiorita	4	1	3	0	4:3	1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Tre Penne - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.25%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tre Penne
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
09.05.26	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	1:1 ✺
06.05.26	Cosmos - Tre Penne	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Tre Penne - Cosmos	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Tre Penne - San Giovanni	4:0 ✺
19.04.26	AC Libertas - Tre Penne	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTTWL
- La Fiorita
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
09.05.26	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	1:1 ✺
05.05.26	Fiorentino - La Fiorita	3:2 ✺
02.05.26	La Fiorita - Fiorentino	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Fiorentino - La Fiorita	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	La Fiorita - Cosmos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
09.05.26	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	1:1
31.01.26	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	2:0
28.09.25	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	1:1
19.01.25	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	2:0
01.09.24	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	1:1
San Marino Coppa Titano
06.03.24	La Fiorita - Tre Penne	4:1
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
17.12.23	Tre Penne - La Fiorita	1:2

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