Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Round 18

Date: 26 January 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.95	3.3
	2.09	3	3.5
	2.19	3.03	3.8
	2.16	3.02	3.69	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4
	2.08	2.97	3.56
	2.09	3	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.25)	3.01 ↑ (3)	3.62 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
44.2%

Draw
30.5%

Lusitânia
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

30.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

31.9%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Trofense - Lusitânia Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Trofense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Lusitânia will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Ferreira L. (G) 4. Semeu 5. Cunha G. 29. Joel 89. Nuninho 10. Valente N. (C) 14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 30. Santos W. 27. Duarte D. 84. Ayiah E. 9. Barbosa N.	23. Ribeiro M. (G) 2. Nhayson 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 29. Cerveira T. 88. Teixeira M. 8. Tokinho Doria 80. Renato Luis 21. Joao Vasco 77. Goba Zakpa (C) 11. Pereira M.
Substitutes
98. Carlos 18. Diagne O. 70. Madureira C. (G) 11. Paciencia V. 7. Ramalho A. 8. Reko Silva 44. Saldanha F. 55. Tiago Andre 77. Viana D.	85. Castro D. 1. Cioletti G. (G) 31. Faneco M. 20. Faria R. 5. Oliveira J. 18. Pereira D. 10. Ribeiro S. 14. Valente M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Nhayson ↓, Oliveira J. ↑,
67', Joel ↓, Ramalho A. ↑,
68', Valente N. ↓, Saldanha F. ↑,
72', Renato Luis ↓, Ribeiro S. ↑,
72', Joao Vasco ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
75', Ayiah E. ↓, Carlos ↑,
75', Duarte D. ↓, Reko Silva ↑,
80', Saldanha F. 🟨,
88', 0 - 1, Ribeiro S. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 6 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

Lusitânia is Qualified for Liga 3 (Promotion Group )

Recent matches Trofense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lusitânia in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Trofense will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Trofense won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:6 (average 0.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Trofense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
18.01.25	Varzim - Trofense	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Trofense - Anadia	3:0 ✺
05.01.25	São João de Ver - Trofense	1:0 ✺
14.12.24	Trofense - Fafe	3:2 ✺
07.12.24	Trofense - Sanjoanense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLWW
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
18.01.25	Lusitânia - Sanjoanense	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Vilaverdense - Lusitânia	0:2 ✺
04.01.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	1:0 ✺
15.12.24	Braga B - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
07.12.24	Fafe - Lusitânia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
27.10.24	Lusitânia - Trofense	2:1
06.01.24	Trofense - Lusitânia	1:3
16.09.23	Lusitânia - Trofense	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
05.01.20	Trofense - Lusitânia	0:0

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