Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Fafe

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.95	2.95
	2.3	3	2.92
	2.38	3.15	3.19
	4.32	3.93	1.70	Watch
	2.33	3.02	2.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.35)	3.21 ↑ (3.02)	2.74 ↓ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
35.3%

Draw
29.8%

Fafe
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

30.6%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

30.8%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Fafe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fafe than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Trofense - Fafe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Trofense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Silva N. (G) 44. Saldanha F. 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 5. Cunha G. 30. Welisson 18. Diagne O. 8. Reko Silva 22. Duarte E. 89. Nuninho 19. Diarra M. 7. Ivandro	1. Damaso N. (G) 85. Castro D. 4. Teixeira L. 5. Ze Oliveira 13. Vigario J. 35. Cardoso F. 60. Ribeiro Oliveira J. 7. Veiga T. 11. Picas 95. Fonseca T. 77. Carlos Daniel
Substitutes
14. Assis Cardoso R. H. 15. Borges F. 9. Hachadi K. 87. Melro R. 17. Monteiro D. 11. Paciencia V. 21. Pereira M. 96. Rendeiro R. (G) 55. Silva L.	20. Amorim J. 26. Batista J. 8. Braga V. 15. Breno 10. Ka 64. Martins T. (G) 78. Pinto G. 90. Santos J. 79. Teixeira T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Veiga T. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Diarra M. ⚽,
26', 2 - 1, Damaso N. (Own goal),
29', 🟨,
36', 🟨,
37', Picas 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Diagne O. ↓, Borges F. ↑,
46', Cunha G. ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
49', Cardoso F. 🟨,
51', 3 - 1, Ivandro ⚽,
62', Fonseca T. ↓, Santos J. ↑,
62', Picas ↓, Ka ↑,
63', Borges F. 🟨,
69', 4 - 1, Duarte E. ⚽,
70', Ivandro ↓, Paciencia V. ↑,
70', Diarra M. ↓, Melro R. ↑,
73', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
76', 🟨,
79', Teixeira L. ↓, Batista J. ↑,
83', 5 - 1, Melro R. ⚽,
90', Ribeiro Oliveira J. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 2.

Recent performances by Trofense have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fafe is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fafe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Trofense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Trofense - Varzim	5:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
23.08.25	Paredes - Trofense	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Trofense - Braga B	2:0 ✺
09.08.25	São João de Ver - Trofense	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Trofense - Porto B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTWTL
- AD Fafe
Portuguese Liga 3
24.08.25	Fafe - Marco 09	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Paredes - Fafe	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Fafe - Sanjoanense	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Fafe - Paços de Ferreira	1:1 ✺
16.07.25	Chaves - Fafe	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
14.12.24	Trofense - Fafe	3:2
31.08.24	Fafe - Trofense	1:0
27.04.24	Fafe - Trofense	2:3
24.02.24	Trofense - Fafe	1:3
13.01.24	Trofense - Fafe	0:1
01.10.23	Fafe - Trofense	2:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
24.02.19	Trofense - Fafe	0:0

Trofense - Fafe: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide