Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 7

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Clube Desportivo Trofense (Trofa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Trofense		Sanjoanense

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.25
	1.78	3.41	5.01
	1.83	3.41	4.23	Watch
	1.79	3.28	4.28
	1.76	3.25	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↑ (1.75)	3.32 ↑ (3.32)	4.39 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
51.5%

Draw
27.6%

Sanjoanense
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.6%

27.8%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

27.3%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Sanjoanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanjoanense than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Trofense - Sanjoanense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Silva N. (G) 89. Nuninho 21. Pereira M. 23. Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 19. Diarra M. 22. Duarte E. 44. Saldanha F. 5. Cunha G. 8. Reko Silva 7. Ivandro 15. Borges F.	1. Monteiro J. (G) 17. Lopes M. 12. Vitinha 3. Nando 24. Maio F. 2. Martins J. 13. Pinheiro Edu 6. Daniel J. 25. Couto J. 19. Cezar F. 30. Talles Wander
Substitutes
18. Diagne O. 9. Hachadi K. 29. Joel 11. Paciencia V. 96. Rendeiro R. (G) 79. Rocha T. 30. Welisson	27. Calo A. 20. Correia L. 36. Duarte A. (G) 21. Gomes R. 16. Gomes V. 10. Kiko Felix 9. Mosquera Larrahondo S. D. 33. Sa G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Cezar F. ⚽, Lopes M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Pinheiro Edu 🟨,
52', 1 - 1, Nuninho ⚽,
55', Ribeiro Gomes D. M. 🟨,
59', 1 - 2, Vitinha ⚽,
71', Cezar F. ↓, Kiko Felix ↑,
71', Pinheiro Edu ↓, Gomes V. ↑,
75', Ivandro ↓, Paciencia V. ↑,
81', Saldanha F. ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,
87', Maio F. 🟨,
88', Lopes M. ↓, Calo A. ↑,
90+4', Mosquera Larrahondo S. D. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 3.

Trofense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Sanjoanense has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Trofense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Trofense is seen as the favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Trofense won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Trofense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães B - Trofense	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Trofense - Vianense	2:3 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Trofense - Fafe	5:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Trofense - Varzim	5:1 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
23.08.25	Paredes - Trofense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WLWWT
- AD Sanjoanense
Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Sanjoanense - Paredes	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	Braga B - Sanjoanense	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Sanjoanense - Felgueiras	0:4 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Sanjoanense - São João de Ver	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Amarante - Sanjoanense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
26.04.25	Sanjoanense - Trofense	3:1
22.02.25	Trofense - Sanjoanense	2:0
07.12.24	Trofense - Sanjoanense	3:2
25.08.24	Sanjoanense - Trofense	0:2
04.05.24	Trofense - Sanjoanense	1:2
17.02.24	Sanjoanense - Trofense	0:3
05.11.23	Sanjoanense - Trofense	3:2

Trofense - Sanjoanense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide