Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 34

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday


	UD Ourense		Atlético Astorga

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.45	3.4
	1.88	3.68	3.12
	1.87	4.15	3.22	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.25
	1.92	3.64	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.83)	3.66 ↓ (3.71)	3.26 ↓ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
47.5%

Draw
24.7%

Atlético Astorga
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

24.4%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

23.7%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Atlético Astorga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Astorga than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

UD Ourense - Atlético Astorga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 1 - 0, Iglesias F. ⚽,
78', 1 - 1, Alvarez D. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 12).

UD Ourense is Qualified for Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs

UD Ourense is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Atlético Astorga's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

UD Ourense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

UD Ourense will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, UD Ourense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Atl. Astorga	5	1	0	4	5:7	-2	3

Last Results with these Odds

UD Ourense - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 49.38%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
26.04.26	Bergantiños - UD Ourense	1:3 ✺
19.04.26	UD Ourense - Lealtad	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - UD Ourense	3:0 ✺
05.04.26	UD Ourense - Gimnástica Segoviana	1:0 ✺
29.03.26	Marino de Luanco - UD Ourense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWLWT
- Atlético Astorga
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
26.04.26	Atlético Astorga - Sarriana	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Atlético Astorga - Burgos Promesas	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Rayo Cantabria - Atlético Astorga	3:2 ✺
04.04.26	Atlético Astorga - Lealtad	3:4 ✺
29.03.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Atlético Astorga	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
08.11.25	Atlético Astorga - UD Ourense	1:1

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