Match Info

Premier League - Round 5

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nakivubo Stadium (Kampala) 🌤️ ...


	UPDF		Bul

	1	X	2
	3.35	2.90	2.04
	3.42	3.17	2.10
	3.5	3.01	2.11	Watch
	3.35	2.85	2.07
	3.51	2.99	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↓ (5.64)	2.98 ↓ (3.2)	2.1 ↑ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UPDF
26.4%

Draw
30.4%

Bul
43.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

16.3%

28.7%

55%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UPDF's performance.

Bul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bul might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', 0 - 1, Byabacwezi D. ⚽,
75', 0 - 2, Batholomew D. ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 9th and 3rd).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 4.

Bul is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bul could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bul carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, UPDF has recorded 10 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:18 (averaging 1.7:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for UPDF against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 13:5 goals (averaging 1.6:0.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	BUL	7	6	1	0	15:4	11	19
11	UPDF	7	2	2	3	4:6	-2	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UPDF FC
Ugandan Super League
15.10.26	Express - UPDF	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	UPDF - Maroons	1:0 ✺
10.09.26	Police - UPDF	0:0 ✺
01.09.26	Entebbe UPPC - UPDF	2:1 ✺
19.05.26	UPDF - Calvary	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WWTLT
- BIDCO Bul FC
Ugandan Super League
13.10.26	Lugazi Municipal - Bul	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Bul - Blacks Power	2:1 ✺
08.09.26	Bul - Ntugasaze	4:1 ✺
03.09.26	Kataka - Bul	1:4 ✺
30.08.26	Bul - Express	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
21.04.26	Bul - UPDF	2:5
30.01.26	UPDF - Bul	0:1
04.12.24	Bul - UPDF	0:2
12.03.24	Bul - UPDF	0:1
09.11.23	UPDF - Bul	2:0
21.02.23	UPDF - Bul	1:1
01.03.22	Bul - UPDF	5:1

UPDF - Bul