Match Info
Premier League - Round 9Date: 5 December 2025, FridayLocation: Bombo Stadium (Kampala)
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
UPDF |
|
Lugazi Municipal |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
|
 |
1.63 |
4.01 |
4.05 |
|
 |
1.62 |
4 |
4 |
|
 |
1.6 |
3.85 |
4.62 |
|
 |
1.61 |
3.8 |
4 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.67 ↓
(2.02) |
3.77 ↑
(3) |
4.05 ↑
(3.68) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
UPDF
53.9% | Draw
23.9% | Lugazi Municipal
22.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UPDF's performance.Lugazi Municipal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (-8.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UPDF that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugazi Municipal than the current prediction. (+2.1%)UPDF - Lugazi Municipal Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 15', 1 - 0, Ochen E. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 47', 2 - 0, Janjali J. ⚽,
- 69', Wasswa P. 🟥,
Preview
The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League and 12)UPDF has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).Lugazi's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).Lugazi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. UPDF might have a minor edge in this game.In the last 2 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).Including home match between the teams, UPDF won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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