Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Bombo Stadium (Kampala)


	UPDF		Villa

	1	X	2
	3.15	2.88	2.25
	3.04	2.91	2.31
	3.44	3.19	2.04	Watch
	3.21	2.93	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↓ (3.38)	2.98 ↓ (3.1)	2.21 ↑ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UPDF
28.3%

Draw
30.5%

Villa
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.9%

29.3%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

29.2%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

UPDF - Villa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Kasinde I. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 1.

UPDF has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Villa is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Villa has had a series of home games.

Villa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 4:20. (average 0.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, UPDF won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UPDF FC
Ugandan Super League
19.11.25	Calvary - UPDF	0:1 ✺
06.11.25	UPDF - Police	1:2 ✺
29.10.25	Uganda Revenue Authority SC - UPDF	3:2 ✺
15.10.25	UPDF - Maroons	1:2 ✺
03.10.25	Mbarara City - UPDF	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLLLW
- SC Villa
Ugandan Super League
20.11.25	Villa - NEC FC	2:1 ✺
06.11.25	Villa - Kitara	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Buhimba United Saints - Villa	0:3 ✺
24.10.25	Villa - Police	2:1 ✺
15.10.25	Villa - Entebbe UPPC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Ugandan Super League
02.03.25	UPDF - Villa	2:0
01.11.24	Villa - UPDF	5:0
11.05.24	UPDF - Villa	0:2
02.01.24	Villa - UPDF	3:0
16.05.23	UPDF - Villa	0:2
11.12.22	Villa - UPDF	2:0
06.02.22	UPDF - Villa	0:0

UPDF - Villa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide